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Gold Prices May Continue to Rise After US Jobs Data

Gold Prices May Continue to Rise After US Jobs Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Gold prices rise for a third day amid “Trump trade” unwinding
  • Crude oil prices erase intraday drop on EIA inventories report
  • Broadly in-line US jobs data may yield back to corrective flows

Gold prices rose as for a third consecutive day as the unwinding of the “Trump trade” resumed after the day’s offering of US economic data crossed the wires (as expected). The US Dollar resumed its pullback from 14-year highs and US Treasury bond yields declined in tandem, offering support to non-interest-bearing and anti-fiat assets.

Crude oil prices initially fell alongside US share prices, benchmark borrowing costs and the greenback, mirroring a pattern seen earlier in the week that appears consistent with profit-taking on themes dominant in the final weeks of 2016. The WTI contract rebounded however as EIA inventory data showed stockpiles fell by 7.05 million barrels last week, topping forecasts calling for a 1.7mb draw and echoing API estimates.

December’s official US employment figures are firmly in the spotlight from here. An outcome broadly in line with expectations is unlikely to be game-changing for Fed rate hike speculation, where much depends on still-uncertain fiscal policy (by officials’ own admission). That means that absent a wild deviation from forecasts, the report’s release may do little more besides clearing a path for the “Trump trade” reversal to continue.

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GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices established foothold above resistance at 1166.51, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, confirming the break on a daily closing basis. The next upside barrier is in the 1193.55-99.80 area (38.2% level, May 30 low), with a further push above that targeting the 50% Fib at 1215.40. Alternatively, a reversal back below 1166.51 exposes the 14.6% Fib at 1149.85 anew.

Gold Prices May Continue to Rise After US Jobs Data

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices are attempting to rebuild upside momentum after finding support above the $51/barrel figure. Near-term resistance is at 54.03, the 14% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 44.19-21 area (23.6% level, January 3 high). Alternatively, a move below resistance-turned-support at 51.64 exposes the 38.2% Fib retracementat 50.25.

Gold Prices May Continue to Rise After US Jobs Data

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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