Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View More
Gold, Crude Oil Prices Still at the Mercy of Fed Rate Hike Bets

Gold, Crude Oil Prices Still at the Mercy of Fed Rate Hike Bets

Ilya Spivak,

Talking Points:

Gold prices finished last week on the defensive as hawkish comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen fueled rate hike speculation, boosting the US Dollar and undermining demand for anti-fiat assets (as expected). Crude oil prices followed suit, with a surging greenback putting de-facto selling pressure on the USD-denominated WTI contract. Yellen said “the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months”.

Looking ahead, Fed policy speculation remains in focus as the central bank’s favored PCE inflation data is released. The core year-on-year rate is expected to tick lower, registering at 1.5 percent in July compared with 1.6 percent in the prior month. This may dampen rate hike bets a bit and offer a bit of a boost to commodity prices, but follow-through may be limited considering the slowdown was telegraphed in CPI data released two weeks ago.

Are retail traders buying or selling gold, and what does this hint about the trend? Find out here !

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices continue to edge lower after last week’s range breakout. From here, a daily close below the 1303.62-08.00 area (May 2 high, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement) exposes the 50% level at 1287.29. Alternatively, a move back above support-turned-resistance in the 1329.79-33.62 zone (August 8 low, 23.6% Fib) targets a falling trend line at 1351.64.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices are digesting losses after an initial move lower following the appearance of a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. Near-term support is at 46.65, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that exposing the 38.2% level at 45.22. Alternatively, a daily close above the 14.6% Fib at 47.54 paves the way for a retest of the August 22 high at 48.97.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES