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Crude Oil Prices Rise, Gold Falls as BOE Talks Down Brexit Impact

Crude Oil Prices Rise, Gold Falls as BOE Talks Down Brexit Impact

2016-07-20 09:54:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Gold prices trying to resume downward momentum
  • Crude oil prices rebound from rang floor yet again
  • Upbeat BOE comments boost markets’ risk appetite

Gold prices are falling alongside US Treasury bond futures and the anti-risk Japanese Yen as risk appetite swells across financial markets, boosting yields and undermining the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets. The chipper mood follows upbeat comments from the Bank of England Agents’ summary of business conditions. Not surprisingly, the British Pound rose alongside share prices.

The release revealed that while many firms undertaking strategic reviews, most firms see no near-term impact on investment and hiring from the outcome ofthe UK Brexit referendum. Further, it said early evidence shows that banks are maintaining lending and firms are seeing a positive effect on exportsafter the vote. Still, athird of polled firms see negative knock-on effects emerging in the next 12 months

Crude oil prices joined risky assets on the upside, building on earlier gains sparked after a private-sector weekly inventories estimate from API showed a decline of 2.3 million barrels. The official EIA report on stockpiles is due later today, with economists projecting a more modest 1.3 million barrel draw-down. S&P 500 futures are pointing firmly higher ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street, hinting the risk-on mood is likely to carry forward in the hours ahead.

Track key short-term levels and price patterns for gold and crude oil with our GSI indicator!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices are attempting to renew downside momentum having paused to consolidate after breaking support in the 1330.22-32.17 area (July 12 low, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement). A daily close below the 38.2% level at 1308.00 exposes the 50% Fib at 1287.30. Alternatively, a move back above 1333.62 targets the 14.6% retracement at 1349.42.

Crude Oil Prices Rise, Gold Falls as BOE Talks Down Brexit Impact

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices remain in consolidation mode above the $44/bbl figure. Near-term resistance is at 48.14, the intersection of trend line resistance and the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that exposing the 50.45-51.64 area (23.6% Fib, June 9 high). Alternatively, a daily close below the July 11 low at 44.40 targets the 38.2% Fib retracement at 41.86.

Crude Oil Prices Rise, Gold Falls as BOE Talks Down Brexit Impact

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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