News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • $XAUUSD - Big Spot here for #Gold . . . https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/xau-usd/2021/06/10/Gold-Price-Outlook-Gold-Pops-on-Hot-Inflation--Bulls-Eyes-Resistance-GLD-Technical-Forecast-MBTS6.html https://t.co/BPcJ6OUiuM
  • RT @ZabelinDimitri: What are markets looking at next ahead now that we've got the Fed rate decision behind us? Take a look⬇️
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.23% FTSE 100: 0.20% France 40: 0.19% US 500: -0.98% Wall Street: -1.27% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/PmrtAwxR49
  • $XAUUSD - Big Spot here for #Gold . . . https://t.co/V6vp7zTZ04 https://t.co/9nPPFBM5Nd
  • The FTSE is turning lower from big spot of resistance. Testing channel structure off the February low. Get your market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/2fEB1tJ5Zh https://t.co/7NrWwY9jBl
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Gold are long at 84.57%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 70.12%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/Gb5NeVBsGS
  • US Dollar Price Action Setups: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/USD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/analyst_picks/todays_picks/james_stanley/2021/06/18/US-Dollar-Price-Action-Setups-EURUSD-GBPUSD-AUDUSD-USDCAD.html https://t.co/EyDRu1uB8q
  • Bitcoin continues to trade within a defined support and resistance band. Rates markets awash with speculation as yield curve flattens. Get your market update from @WVenketas here:https://t.co/y10uIN6Zqg https://t.co/uf2oerbfUW
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.64% Silver: 0.23% Gold: 0.04% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/L3CRiaZdZU
  • Wall Street IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now at their most net-long Wall Street since Oct 30 when Wall Street traded near 26,509.50. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to Wall Street weakness. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/6LuUxLna1F
Australian Dollar Analysis: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY May Fall on Long Bets

Australian Dollar Analysis: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY May Fall on Long Bets

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

Australian Dollar, AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, IG Client Sentiment - Talking Points

  • Australian Dollar vulnerable to kneejerk volatility on US-Iran risk
  • Positioning signals are arguing downside bias versus USD & JPY
  • AUD/USD, AUD/JPY may accelerate declines on technical breaks

US-Iran Geopolitical Risk Fuels Australian Dollar Volatility

In this week’s session, I covered a broad-based overview of assets that experienced kneejerk volatility on US-Iran geopolitical risk. All eyes are on President Donald Trump’s statement on Wednesday after Iran “concluded proportionate measures” and is not seeking to start a war. For the time being, market pessimism has cooled. Where does that leave the pro-risk Australian Dollar using measures of conviction?

AUD/USD Sentiment Outlook

According to IG Client Sentiment, about 62.46 percent of AUD/USD traders are net long at the time of this writing. That represents an uptick from where positioning was earlier this month and coincidentally when prices topped at the onset of 2020. Now those biased to the upside are about 17.06% and 33.45% higher compared to yesterday and the past week respectively.

With that in mind, the combination of current sentiment and recent changes produces a stronger AUD/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias. From a psychological perspective, this shows rising speculation of a bottom in the pair. That may continue building in the near-term. This is as net-short positioning is broadly on the decline in recent days.

Australian Dollar Analysis: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY May Fall on Long Bets

Technical Analysis

Focusing on technical analysis, AUD/USD extended its selloff after confirming a bearish candlestick pattern – as expected. Prices also took out near-term rising support from the beginning of December – blue line on the chart below. That has put the push above long-term falling resistance from 2018 into question. A descent through this psychological barrier would reinstate the focus on the pair’s dominant downtrend.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Australian Dollar Analysis: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY May Fall on Long Bets

AUD/USD Chart Created in Trading View

AUD/JPY Sentiment Outlook

A similar story is unfolding when comparing the Aussie to the anti-risk Japanese Yen. About 56.78% of traders are net long AUD/JPY. Upside bets have been on the rise, increasing 3.42% and 15.74% on a daily and weekly period respectively. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a stronger AUD/JPY-bearish contrarian trading bias at this moment in time.

Australian Dollar Analysis: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY May Fall on Long Bets

Technical Analysis

AUD/JPY has taken out key rising support from August 2019, red lines on the daily chart below. That has placed the medium-term uptrend at risk. Further confirmation is required from here to argue that a topping is in the cards. Immediate support sits below at 73.35 which if pushed through, exposes lows from October around 71.73.

AUD/JPY Daily Chart

Australian Dollar Analysis: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY May Fall on Long Bets

AUD/JPY Chart Created in Trading View

*IG Client Sentiment Charts and Positioning Data Used from January 07 Report

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES