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Australian Dollar Outlook: Uptrend Versus USD, JPY, CAD at Risk?

Australian Dollar Outlook: Uptrend Versus USD, JPY, CAD at Risk?

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/CAD, GBP/AUD Technical Forecast

  • Australian Dollar aimed cautiously lower this past week, a reversal due?
  • AUD/USD at risk to an Evening Star candlestick, though trend line held
  • Rising support maintaining uptrends in AUD/JPY, AUD/CAD, GBP/AUD

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian Dollar wrapped up the first partial week of 2020 on a cautious note amid geopolitical risks. In fact, it could be at risk to reversing against the US Dollar. On the AUD/USD daily chart, an Evening Star candlestick formed which saw follow-through on Friday. This is a bearish technical signal. Still, near-term rising support from December held as well as the psychological barrier between 0.6913 to 0.6939. A descent through these barriers may translate into a more aggressive plunge. Resuming gains entails taking out 0.7032.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

AUDUSD Daily Price Chart

Chart Created in TradingView

AUD/JPYTechnical Analysis

This is as the Aussie struggled to make further upside progress against the anti-risk Japanese Yen. AUD/JPY has been in a steady uptrend since the bottom in August and what has been a brewing Ascending Triangle formation. This is usually a bullish chart pattern where a daily close above 76.39 may prolong the medium-term rise towards April highs. The floor of the triangle has held. If it is taken out, in addition to the psychological barrier between 74.48 to 74.84, that may translate into a bearish reversal.

AUD/JPY Daily Chart

AUDJPY Daily Price Chart

Chart Created in TradingView

AUD/CADTechnical Outlook

A similar story is unfolding against the Canadian Dollar. Key rising support from October has held in AUD/CAD after prices topped after testing resistance (0.9144 – 0.9161). A push through the upward-sloping trend line exposes 0.8967 and that opens the door to reversing the cautious rise that we have seen over the past 3 months. Otherwise, if support holds, we may see another push to revisit December highs. If the latter is taken out, that may translate into a rise towards peaks from July.

AUD/CAD Daily Chart

AUDCAD Daily Price Chart

Chart Created in TradingView

GBP/AUDTechnical Outlook

GBP/AUD has slowed its descent off December highs as rising support from July maintains the dominant uptrend, red lines on the chart below. A daily close under this psychological channel would need confirmation to argue that the medium-term rise is at risk. That places the focus on key support at 1.8653 which if taken out, increases the chance of a reversal. Otherwise, resuming gains would pave the way to revisit the horizontal barrier between 1.9013 to 1.9094.

GBP/AUD Daily Chart

GBPAUD Daily Price Chart

Chart Created in TradingView

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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