Pound Sterling Q1 Fundamental Forecast: GBP Rudderless on Brexit Permutations
Brexit News and Noise Continue to Steer the British Pound
The United Kingdom is scheduled to leave the European Union on March 29, 2019; and as we stand, the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement that is currently on offer from the EU to the UK will not pass through a vote in the House of Commons. If there is no agreement between the two sides – or if an extension of the Article 50 timetable has not been agreed – the UK will leave the EU with no-deal and will revert to World Trade Organization (WTO) trade rules.
If an agreement is reached, a transition period until December 2020 will be triggered where the UK can negotiate its own deals. This makes the first quarter of 2019 one of the most important three-month periods in the UK’s history. That in turns will translate into any and all action, news release or rumor having an outsized effect on Sterling.
--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst
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