News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇲🇽 Unemployment Rate (SEP) Actual: 5.1% Expected: 5.3% Previous: 5.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-21
  • 🇲🇽 Unemployment Rate (SEP) Actual: 5.1% Expected: 5.3% Previous: 5.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-21
  • 🇺🇸 MBA Mortgage Applications (16/OCT) Actual: -0.6% Previous: -0.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-21
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.67%, while traders in EUR/USD are at opposite extremes with 71.35%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/SuyI0wMhaq
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 MBA Mortgage Applications (16/OCT) due at 11:00 GMT (15min) Previous: -0.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-21
  • Heads Up:🇲🇽 Unemployment Rate (SEP) due at 11:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 5.3% Previous: 5.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-21
  • The Spinning Top candlestick pattern forms part of the vast Japanese candlestick repertoire with its own distinct features. Gain a better understanding of the spinning top candlestick here: https://t.co/yXomAftdv8 https://t.co/GNUYwiesiM
  • Commodities Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.55% Gold: 0.60% Oil - US Crude: -1.26% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/zeXG8lHCy0
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.81% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.72% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.64% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.29% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.23% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.12% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/Au6kbo4WXL
  • Indices Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.08% Wall Street: -0.00% Germany 30: -0.86% France 40: -1.12% FTSE 100: -1.32% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/pNZcZ7hQkI
Oil: Might be Tough to Revisit the Recent Highs

Oil: Might be Tough to Revisit the Recent Highs

2017-05-27 00:54:00
Nick Cawley, Strategist
Share:
Oil: Might be Tough to Revisit the Recent Highs

Fundamental Forecast for Oil: Neutral with a Bearish Bias

  • A classic example of ‘Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact’.
  • Oil may struggle to get back into its upward channel.
  • Check out the DailyFX Economic Calendar and see what live coverage of key event risk impacting FX markets is scheduled for the week on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

Oil slumped nearly 5% Thursday after OPEC announced that it would extend production cuts of 1.8 million barrels a day for another nine months, ending in June 2018. And while this would normally be taken as a bullish cue for the market, this extension had been mooted around the market since early May, taking the price of oil from a low of $46.72/barrel to a pre-release high of $54.87, a 17%+ rally in just over three weeks. With such a price rise already baked-in to market assumptions, it is no surprise to see the market falling back. And with US shale production hitting just under 10 million barrels a day, according to the latest US EIA data, upside movement in the oil complex may be capped.

And the technical set-up looks slightly worrying as well. As the daily chart below shows, Brent has broken out of its sharp up channel that started on May 5, while the current price is also now below the 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages, a potentially bearish set-up. To return to the up channel, Brent would need to move back above the 100-dma, currently around $53.70, while continued weakness could see the March 22 low of $49.92 the first target.

Chart: Oil Daily Timeframe (December 5, 2016 – May 26, 2017)

Oil: Might be Tough to Revisit the Recent Highs

Chart by IG

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst.

To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

If you’re looking for trading ideas, check out our Trading Guides; they’re free and updated for the second quarter of 2017

If you’re looking for ideas more short-term in nature, check out the IG Client Sentiment Data

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES