News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Myth or fact? One thing is for sure, there are a lot of misconceptions about trading. Knowing the difference between common trading myths and the reality is essential to long-term success. Find out about these 'myths' here: https://t.co/EDvQdHfIPm https://t.co/nyjrTglRg5
  • USDCAD (weekly chart) remains under pressure - looking to break below the September 2017 low. #usdcad #usd #loonie @DailyFX https://t.co/GiqqsAWxII
  • Strong start in cryptos with double-digit gains shown. #btc #bch #eth #LTC @DailyFX Prices via @IGcom https://t.co/CRGEe3MZsm
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 88.59%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 79.44%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/zhxgCxuRja
  • Commodities Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.72% Oil - US Crude: 0.52% Gold: 0.17% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/cwqmxM5Abs
  • RT @ZabelinDimitri: Hello there, traders It’s been a while. Some news: I will be occasionally publishing reports once again for DailyFX as…
  • Forex Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.49% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.07% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.07% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.07% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.13% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.38% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/6vzGUOMy7t
  • Indices Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.55% FTSE 100: 0.46% Germany 30: 0.32% Wall Street: 0.31% US 500: 0.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/1lvmfOWWh7
  • What are some monetary policies that could affect Gold this quarter? Get your Gold free forecast here: https://t.co/bTXkGN1CIM #DailyFXGuides https://t.co/JkBv8Bfa9W
  • Crude Oil Prices Climb on Major US Pipeline Disruptions, Weaker USD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/05/10/Crude-Oil-Prices-Climb-on-Major-US-Pipeline-Disruptions-and-a-Weaker-USD.html https://t.co/3kcBXyMIoh
Watch the DAX, It Could Be on the Verge of a Big Move

Watch the DAX, It Could Be on the Verge of a Big Move

Paul Robinson, Strategist
Watch the DAX, It Could Be on the Verge of a Big Move

What’s inside:

  • DAX rising wedge could lead to a strong move, and soon
  • S&P 500 supported by confluence of trend-lines
  • FTSE 100 sits at record levels, but still has ‘resistance’ ahead

See the Webinar Calendar for a schedule of upcoming live events with DailyFX analysts.

Last week was a busy one, with the FOMC, BoJ, and BoE all holding monetary policy meetings, however; looking ahead to next week we are left searching for any major catalysts for stocks on the economic calendar. On that note, markets are likely to be technically-driven.

DAX

There is potential for the coming week to be an important one for the DAX, and risk markets in general. As of late, we’ve been discussing the developing rising wedge in the German index. Last week’s price action went to solidify the formation, now it is a matter of waiting for it to break one way or the other. The health of global risk appetite suggests we will see higher prices, but we can’t rule out a down-side break, as these patterns can prove to be ominous after extended runs. If the DAX can close higher out of the pattern, the record highs from 2015 of 12391 could quickly come into play. However, a breakout to the upside from a rising wedge in a market which has been rallying for a good length of time is at risk of a reversal. If that is to be the case, a failure would likely come soon after the breakout. For now, in the event of a break higher we will run with what is presented to us and adjust accordingly should the market quickly negate a bullish break.

On the flip-side, should the DAX drop through the thoroughly tested under-side of the pattern and December trend-line, the resulting move lower could be sharp as the long-side of the market is caught leaning the wrong way.

The DAX will not embark on a big move by itself, material moves will unfold in other parts of the globe not called Germany. Looking to potential catalysts, we are left wanting as nothing of significance is penciled in on the economic calendar. This doesn’t mean, however, that the market can’t move on its own accord and unforeseen catalysts don’t show up.

DAX: Daily

Watch the DAX, It Could Be on the Verge of a Big Move

Created with TradingView

S&P 500

On Wednesday, the FOMC raised rates by 25-bps as expected, and provided a glide path for rates and language in the policy statement which did little to breed a tremendous amount of volatility in equity markets. The net response by stocks was a mildly positive one, while the US dollar was punished in the absence of anything to boost expectations beyond what the market was already looking for. In the coming week, Yellen will speak on Thursday, but it is unlikely her words will be market-moving given the proximity to last week’s policy meeting. On Friday, Durable Goods Orders for February will be released.

Turning to the technical picture, the market maintained a bullish tone after testing the confluence of trend-line support which comes by way of a ‘cross-through’ trend-line off the Feb ’16 low and the trend-line rising up from November. We will continue to lean on that in the near-term as support, and barring a strong daily close below the confluence of lines and a lower low below 2353, a neutral to upward bias will be maintained. The week ahead may turn out to be a period of consolidation, with minor dips met with buying. Watch the DAX, though, it could be ready to tell us what we need to know…

S&P 500: Daily

Watch the DAX, It Could Be on the Verge of a Big Move

Created with TradingView

FTSE 100

Looking to key events this coming week, the only ‘high’ impact piece of data the market may take interest in is the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday. Continuing risk of ‘Brexit’ headlines remains, of course.

The FTSE 100 closed to a new record high on Friday. Higher highs and higher lows have marked good trend-health since early February. A development we are not interested in fighting. That is not to say, though, the market is in the all-clear. Not far ahead lies top-side trend-lines extending over from peaks created back in 2015 and 2016; these could be problematic on a further advance. We’ll take note as to how the market responds should the FTSE continue to trade higher into those levels. It will require a hard price break to undermine the intermediate-term trend structure and warrant a defensive stance. Keep an eye on that DAX…

FTSE 100: Daily

Watch the DAX, It Could Be on the Verge of a Big Move

Created with TradingView

Looking for trading ideas? See our Trading Guides.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES