Fundamental and Technical 4Q Outlook: Will Markets Transition from Quiet to Active?
We have closed out one of the most subdued quarters of trading in recent memory. However, the congestion isn't likely to last for much longer as fundamental pressure taxes the closing technical boundaries across the market. What catalysts can force the explosion and what direction will the markets take?
The previous quarter marked one of the most extreme periods of inactivity for the global markets in decades. Despite the narrow ranges for exchange rates and asset prices, however, the fundamental tension continued to build beneath the surface.
2016 started with a ‘whimper' for EUR/USD, but as we head into Q4’16, it may very-well end with a ‘bang.’ Weathering a number of thematic storms over the summer - the Brexit vote fallout and speculation around the timing of the Fed’s first rate hike - EUR/USD was surprisingly docile in the last few weeks of Q3’16.
The long-term outlook for the British Pound remains tilted to the downside as the U.K. remains on course to depart from the European Union (EU), but the bearish sentiment surrounding the sterling may abate over the remainder of the year as the Bank of England (BoE) endorses a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy.
The Federal Reserve wants to raise interest rates. At this point, that much should be clear. But this doesn’t come without costs, or risks, and the premise of removing years’ worth of accommodation and easing has produced a real quagmire of a situation at the world’s largest national Central Bank.
At first blush, the landscape looks treacherous for gold prices in the fourth quarter. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen all but promised an interest rate hike at the press conference following September’s FOMC meeting.
The Oil Market failed to follow through to the upside last forward and carry forward what was an impressive rebound in Q2 that saw the price rise from the February 11 low of $26.03/bbl to a high of $50.91/bbl in June.
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