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Top 5 Events: February UK GDP & GBPJPY Price Outlook

Top 5 Events: February UK GDP & GBPJPY Price Outlook

2019-04-09 20:30:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

- The February UK Industrial Production Manufacturing Production, and GDP are due on Wednesday at 08:30 GMT.

- Consensus forecasts expected UK industrial and manufacturing production to have contracted in February, and for GDP to come in flat.

- Retail traders have started buying the Canadian Dollar, with USDCAD net-shorts having risen in recent days.

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

04/10 WEDNESDAY | 08:30 GMT | GBP Industrial & Manufacturing Production, GDP (FEB)

Tensions over Brexit have increased in recent weeks, and the fact that the UK government has blown past the original March 29 deadline has led to an increased level of uncertainty impacting business, consumer, and economic confidence.

With confidence turning lower in Q1’19 on the back of Brexit, there’s little surprise that real economic data is starting to show signs of duress. According to Bloomberg News, the trio of UK data releases on Wednesday morning should underscore the deteriorating economic environment.

February UK Industrial Production is due to have grown by only 0.1% over the past month, down from the 0.6% monthly rate seen in January; the year-over-year reading is due in at -0.8% from -0.9%. February UK Manufacturing Production will take a similar path: 0.2% from 0.8% (m/m); and -0.7% from -1.1% (y/y). Ultimately, the monthly February UK GDP reading is due in at 0% from 0.5%.

Pairs to Watch: EURGBP, GBPJPY, GBPUSD

GBPJPY Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (November 2017 to April 2019)

gbpjpy price chart, gbpjpy price forecast

Despite volatility in the GBP-crosses remaining elevated, particularly in contrast to other major currency crosses, there hasn’t been much progress made by any GBP-cross over the past several weeks; GBPJPY is no different. Since February 22, GBPJPY prices have traded in a range between 143.78 and 148.87.

Accordingly, to avoid the latest Brexit news from interfering with any decision making, traders may find that bulls will have an easier time more than 148.87 while bears may take control below 143.78. It should be noted that GBPJPY has failed to retake the uptrend from the post-Yen flash crash closing low.

IG Client Sentiment Index: GBPJPY (April 9, 2019)

gbpjpy price chart, igcs, ig client sentiment index

Retail trader data shows 55.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.23 to 1. The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since Apr 01 when GBPJPY traded near 145.692. The number of traders net-long is 12.5% higher than yesterday and 14.8% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 24.2% lower than yesterday and 11.4% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBPJPY prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBPJPY-bearish contrarian trading bias.

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Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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