News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Markets reacted earlier today after 10-year U.S. Treasury yields popped resulting in a move away from the South African rand as the U.S. dollar firmed – reducing the attractiveness of the carry trade. Get your market update from @WVenketas here:
  • US Dollar Ascending Triangle: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Williams Speech due at 16:00 GMT (15min)
  • The price of oil appears to be on track to test the yearly high ($76.98) after breaking out of the descending channel from earlier this year. Get your #crudeoil market update from @DavidJSong here:
  • I read this morning that Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren is retiring 9 months earlier than his term expiration due to health issues. Hope he recovers quickly. Could change the calculus for the Fed's policy position next year as he was an incoming hawkish voter. #Tapering
  • The next 24 hours is going to be interesting for monetary and fiscal policy insight - particularly in the US. Keeping tabs on the Dollar and $SPX
  • BoE Governor Bailey says the rate of recovery has slowed over recent months and that slowing is continuing - Most MPC members view that outlook for the labour market as highly uncertain and to some degree likely to be resolved in fairly short order $GBP
  • The week starts off with elevated expectations for seasonal volatility, central bank speculation and critical political uncertainties. DailyFX's @JohnKicklighter highlights the dominating themes in the markets this week👇
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 BoE Gov Bailey Speech due at 15:00 GMT (15min)
Did the US Dollar Just Bottom? Bullish vs. EUR, GBP, JPY

Did the US Dollar Just Bottom? Bullish vs. EUR, GBP, JPY

Paul Robinson, Strategist

Join Paul live for charts and trade set-ups each week, see the Webinar Calendar for details.

The US dollar put in a strong reversal yesterday against its major counterparts, and with the US Dollar Index (DXY) having turned sharply higher from near the very low-end of a long-term support zone (started in '98) it’s quite possible we just saw a tradable low carved out. It’s been a one-way road with market participants piling in short since the beginning of the year, but as noted in the euro weekly forecast, a counter-move could unfold swiftly. If the low from yesterday is taken out then a bullish view will be shelved, at least temporarily.

US Dollar Index (DXY): Monthly

Did the US Dollar Just Bottom? Bullish vs. EUR, GBP, JPY

DXY: Daily

Did the US Dollar Just Bottom? Bullish vs. EUR, GBP, JPY

The focus is on the “Big 3” – EUR, GBP, JPY

The euro makes up approximately 57% of the DXY index, and on that it will be the primary driver behind US dollar reversal. Yesterday, EURUSD rallied up just beyond the 2012 low before putting in a bearish key reversal bar (i.e. pin bar, shooting star…). Looking initially for a move to the April trend-line, but a deeper retracement is anticipated.


Did the US Dollar Just Bottom? Bullish vs. EUR, GBP, JPY

Check out longer-term market views and educational content on our Trading Guides page.

GBPUSD turned lower yesterday after testing the under-side of a broken trend-line dating back to March. First up in terms of support comes by way of the lower parallel dating back to April. The mid-12700s is also an important area to watch, but below there we could see a move develop towards a zone under 12600.


Did the US Dollar Just Bottom? Bullish vs. EUR, GBP, JPY

USDJPY took out recent lows and reversed yesterday from the April low. It was a sharp reversal with a turn in risk sentiment as U.S. stocks shook off the recent North Korean threat. Looking higher, the target initially arrives over 11200 where we have a cross-road created by the September and January trend-lines. The 200-day currently lies at around 11245.


Did the US Dollar Just Bottom? Bullish vs. EUR, GBP, JPY

Tactical approach:

The general bias is for a higher dollar, so the approach here is to look for short EURUSD, GBPUSD, and long USDJPY set-ups fitting within the preferred trading time-frame, whether that be swing-trades for several days to several weeks or for maneuvers of shorter durations lasting only a few days at most.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.