Skip to content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
EURUSD Short Following Weekly Exhaustion Pattern

EURUSD Short Following Weekly Exhaustion Pattern

Paul Robinson, Strategist

Looking for a longer-term perspective on EURUSD or another currency pair? See our Quarterly Forecasts.

EURUSD rose relentlessly the past few months, but last week it struggled to move beyond a long-term resistance level by way of the 2010 low at 11876. It made a couple of attempts to trade above it but couldn’t hold onto those gains. Friday’s U.S. jobs report was enough to spark heavy selling, and in the process broke a rising wedge on the 4-hr and carved out a weekly reversal bar. This isn’t a call for ‘the’ top, but a period of backing-and-filling is in order. Looking to targets, the 2016 high at 11616 and trend-line rising up from April are in focus.

4-hr

Daily

Weekly

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which the euro makes up about 57% of in weighting, is trading in a major long-term support zone which dates back as far back as 1998. The most recent wave of selling has been the most persistent since topping back in the very beginning of the year. The intensified selling into support suggests we may have seen an exhaustion in the trend, and for a generally stronger dollar in the weeks ahead. It may only turn out to be a recovery bounce before eventually turning lower, but until oversold conditions are worked off the path of least resistance looks at this time more likely to be up for now.

US Dollar Index (DXY): Weekly

Trade Criteria:

Entry: Short at market (currently 11803)

Stop: Above 11910

Target: 11616/trend-line (~11560)

Join Paul in one of his webinars to discuss this set-up and other new developments . See the Webinar Calendar for details.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES