Talking Points
USD/CHF looks set to move higher in the near future after the pair made a recent double-bottom around the 0.95540 level in late-June. And a break above the 20-day moving average – currently at 0.96789 – may prove to be the catalyst for the next leg of the recovery. Also around this level – 0.96836 – is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the May 11 high to June 30 low move.
Above this a cluster of resistance levels beckon, including the 38.2% retracement at 0.97635, the March 27 low of 0.98138 and the 50.0% retracement at 0.98271.
USDCHF Daily Timeframe (January 17 – July 4, 2017)
From a fundamental stance, the USD has rallied of late, driven by better-than-expected data prints. The latest Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index rose to 57.8 in June from 54.9, the fastest rate in nearly three years, with 15 out of 18 industries saying they expanded in June. This prompted US Treasury yields to bounce higher with the 2-year UST offered around 1.415%, a multi-year yield high, supporting the move higher in the greenback.
Long USD/CHF @ Market (Currently 0.96473)
Stop Loss @ 0.95530
Target 1 @ 0.97635
Target 2 @ 0.98271.
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