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Near-term Setups in NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/MXN & Crude Oil

Near-term Setups in NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/MXN & Crude Oil

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Here's an update on the setup's we've been tracking this week and levels to know heading into the close of the week.

NZD/USD: I highlighted this setup in today’s scalp report and the base-case scenario calls for a near-term exhaustion high in the range between 7073-7097 with the broader outlook constructive while above 6989.

USD/MXN: The pair broke below support at the April low-day close with the move taking out targets at 18.4682 before reversing just ahead of the 18.30-target. Interim resistance now 18.5751 with bearish invalidation now lowered to the weekly open at 18.7140. For now we’re on the lookout for a recovery to sell. Click here for the full setup

Crude Oil Daily

Crude Daily Chart

Key confluence resistance discussed earlier this week at 51.40/64 held on a close basis with break below the weekly opening range today re-affirming the short-bias. The decline is now coming into the first significant region of support here at the monthly open at 49.16. The immediate short-bias is at risk while above this level . . . for now. Note that we’re on pace to post an outside-day reversal today and keeps the broader focus lower while below 50.70.

See our 2Q Crude Oil projections in the DailyFX Trading Forecasts.

Near-term Setups in NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/MXN & Crude Oil
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Crude Oil- the ratio stands at +1.31 (56.7% of traders are long)- weak bearishreading
  • Retail traders have been net-short since April 19- the crude was near 53.12; prices are 7.5% lower since then
  • Long positions are 3.7% higher than yesterday but 22.2% lower than levels seen last week
  • Short positions are 1.5% lower than yesterday but 26.6% higher from last week
  • While broader sentiment continues to point lower, the recent narrowing in the ration does leave the immediate decline vulnerable heading into the close of the week. From a trading standpoint, I’ll favor fading strength sub-50.70.

What do shifts in retail positioning hint about the broader Euro trend? Learn how Sentiment can help your trading in this free guide!

AUD/USD: Aussie failed to push through resistance at 7500 with today’s reversal; now challenging the weekly open support at 7440/51. A break / close below this level would validate a near-term reversal in the pair targeting 7415 & 7385.

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Join Michael for Live Weekly Trading Webinars on Mondays on DailyFX at 12:30GMT (8:30ET)

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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