We've been tracking the near term picture closely in USDOLLAR (equal parts EUR, GBP, AUD, and JPY) in order to help us trade EURUSD this week. The following comments were published to SB Trade Desk this week and should give you an idea of how we've navigated the recent chop.
8/11: The Chinese revaluation killed commodity currencies (AUD in particular) but sent a number of Europe / commodity crosses into upper parallels (support for AUD and NZD). Gold broke near term resistance. The DXY (ICE USD Index) experienced resistance at old support and has declined in 5 waves from last week’s high. In other words, the market is still setup for a bigger turn in the USD. Ironically, the Chinese revaluation may end up contributing to the clean up of the recent technical mess in the USD and elsewhere.
8/12: The general theme presented during the webinar today was that the USD could bounce here but if the trend has turned down (at least for a few more days) then we’ve got levels in mind that should provide resistance. Here are the best (cleanest) USD levels from my vantage point.
For EURUSD, the zone for support if the move is still higher is 1.1088-1.1113. This zone is marked by recent highs and slope lines. The top of the zone could be support during early European hours. There is a confluence for the bottom of the zone during early US hours.
In summary, the dip on 8/13 got us long EURUSD but we're willing to flip to the short side on signs of USDOLLAR support over the next few weeks. For more analysis and trade setups, visit SB Trade Desk.
