US Dollar Dramatic Q4 Reversal Faces Next Test: USD/SGD, USD/PHP, USD/THB, USD/IDR
US Dollar, USD/SGD, USD/PHP, USD/THB, USD/IDR – ASEAN Technical Analysis
- The Singapore Dollar has been a notable ASEAN FX standout in recent months
- As USD/SGD continues lower, USD/PHP and USD/THB are losing momentum
- Things have been different for the Indonesian Rupiah, which remains weaker
Singapore Dollar Technical Outlook – Bullish
The US Dollar continued losing ground against the Singapore Dollar as 2022 concluded. This left USD/SGD at its lowest point since lows in September 2021. As such, keep a close eye on this range, which is between 1.3381 and 1.3409. Positive RSI divergence is present, showing that downside momentum is fading. At times, this can precede a turn higher. That would place the focus on the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The latter may reinstate the downside focus. Further losses expose the 2021 low at 1.3158.
USD/SGD Daily Chart
Philippine Peso Technical Outlook – Neutral
Meanwhile, the US Dollar has been holding up against the Philippine Peso. Throughout December, USD/PHP was unable to clear the key 55.08 – 55.41 support zone. Positive RSI divergence emerged, showing that a turn higher could be increasingly in the cards. The pair was able to push above the 20-day SMA, but follow-through has been lacking. A confirmatory break above the 50-day SMA may offer an increasingly bullish outlook. If not, extending below the support zone exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci extension at 54.70 followed by the midpoint at 54.22.
USD/PHP Daily Chart
Thai Baht Technical Outlook – Neutral
Similarly to the Philippine Peso, the US Dollar has been holding its ground against the Thai Baht. Throughout December, USD/THB was unable to clear the lows set earlier in the month. Immediate support is 34.49, confirming a breakout under this price would likely reinstate a bearish technical outlook. In the interim, positive RSI divergence is present, hinting that a turn higher might become increasingly in the cards. Pushing higher would place the focus on the 50-day SMA. Otherwise, extending losses places the focus on the May 2022 low at 33.99.
USD/THB Daily Chart
Indonesian Rupiah Technical Outlook – Neutral
The Indonesian Rupiah remains a a standout compared to the three previous ASEAN currencies. IDR has been unable to capitalize on broad US Dollar weakness in the final few months of 2022. This left USD/IDR trading around November highs throughout the last month of the previous year. Immediate resistance is the 2022 peak at 15769. Climbing above that exposes the midpoint of the Fibonacci extension at 15928. Negative RSI divergence is present, perhaps alluding to a turn lower. That would place the focus on the 100-day SMA, which might reinstate the broader upside focus.
USD/IDR Daily Chart
--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Senior Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Daniel, follow him on Twitter:@ddubrovskyFX
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.