Carry
came back with a vengeance tonight as calming news from the sub-prime market and
reluctance of BOJ to raise rates beyond the current 0.50% level revived demand
for high yielding currencies across the board.
Talking
Points
·
Japanese
Yen: BOJ holds still trader plow back into
carry
·
Pound:
Benefits from risk appetite on quiet calendar
day
·
Euro:
Final German GDP in line
·
Dollar:
Weekly jobless claims on tap
Yesterday’s announcement after the close ofUS
equity trading that BoA purchased a 2 Billion dollar stake in Countrywide
Mortgage alleviated trader’s fears that the country’s biggest mortgage originator was in danger of bankruptcy.
Only a few days ago CFC was reduced
to tapping it bank credit lines as the liquidity crisis reached its peak. The
Countrywide news served as a critical catalyst in turning investor sentiment from risk avoidance to
risk assumption.
In
the currency market this dynamic translated into strong gains for the carry
trade which was further aided by the BOJ
decision tonight to keep rates steady at 0.5% preserving the interest rate
differential against G10 high
yielding currencies such as the pound and the Australian dollar. As a result
USDJPY spiked to take out the 117.00 level as Japanese retail investors plowed
back into the carry taking out stops along the way. The BOJ decision was clearly
affected by the recent market volatility and Governor Fukui warned that
“Distortions and the misallocation of resources could occur if interest rates
are kept at levels inconsistent with the economy.'' His pointed rhetoric
suggests that the Japanese
central bank will be ready to resume tightening monetary policy next month if global financial
markets remain calm.
With
little economic data on the calendar today, trading is likely to take its cue from
the equity markets. If US
stock traders take the Countrywide news in positive light further rally in the Dow is likely to push USDJPY higher. With risk appetite
back all of the high yielders are poised to rise but that scenario is dependent
two factors – the return the of
normalcy to the markets and the belief that the events of the past week will
have minimal impact on the real economy. In our special report found here http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/USDJPY_to_110__1187850867288.html
we caution investors that prior periods of risk aversion typically resulted in
further selling as credit contraction took its
toll on economic growth.
