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US Dollar At Critical Levels After US NFPs Fall 651K, Unemployment Rate Hits 25+ Year High
Friday, 06 March 2009 13:59:26 GMT  |  Terri Belkas, Currency Strategist
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The US dollar pulled back sharply on news that US non-farm payrolls fell in line with expectations by 651,000 in February, but if the data eventually weighs on US equities today, the greenback may ultimately gain on flight-to-quality.

The results actually reflect a surprising, but very slight improvement from the previous two months due to revisions. Indeed, the January results were revised down to -655,000 from -598,000 while the December results were revised down to -681,000 from -524,000, marking the single worst monthly drop since October 1949. Job losses could be seen across the board in the manufacturing, retail, financial, business services, and hospitality sectors, while the only two to show gains were education/health at +26,000 and government at +9,000.

Meanwhile, the US unemployment rate jumped more than anticipated to 8.1 percent - the highest since December 1983 - from 7.6 percent. Perhaps a more important gauge, though, is the augmented unemployment rate, which includes jobless people who aren't counted among the officially unemployed because they haven't searched for work lately, but who would take a job if offered one. This rate rose to 11.3 percent from 10.8 percent. At the same time, average hourly earnings for the month of February edged up 0.2 percent, but the annual rate of growth slumped down to 3.6 percent from 3.8 percent.

Ultimately, the steady accumulation of job losses does not bode well for economic growth going forward, as falling incomes will only contribute to further contractions in personal spending. Since the start of the US recession in December 2007, per the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the unemployment rate has climbed from 4.9 percent up to 7.6 percent in January 2009 while personal consumption has slowed from 1 percent in Q4 2007 down to -4.3 percent in Q4 2008.

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