EUR/USD Forecast: ECB's de Guindos' Hawkish Sentiments Strengthens Euro
What's on this page
- Chinese optimism provides pro-cyclical currencies and euro with support.
- U.S. growth data dominates the economic calendar.
- Declining bullish momentum for EUR/USD?
EURO FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP
The euro is having a firm start to Thursday’s European session with the dollar on the backfoot after China’s reiteration to stimulate economic growth boosted risk sentiment. Flows exited the safe-haven dollar helping the EUR gain further traction. In addition the European Central Bank (ECB)’s de Guindos maintained the hawkish narrative stating that “50bps may soon become the new standard” to quell rising inflationary pressures within the eurozone.
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Thin liquidity over the festive period may add to bigger moves should economic data significantly beat estimates. Later today, U.S. GDP will be in focus and is expected to improve for the third consecutive release exposing downside risk for the pair. From a bearish perspective, another important metric will come via the core PCE print and with inflation at the top of the Fed’s agenda, another move lower could bring doves back into the picture.
EUR/USD ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Source: DailyFX economic calendar
EUR/USD DAILY CHART
Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG
From a price action standpoint, the daily EUR/USD chart shows bulls pushing above the June 2022 swing high which has yet to be resolutely breached. Considering the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is coming off overbought levels, I maintain a potential grind lower as we close off 2022.
BULLISH IG CLIENT SENTIMENT
IGCS shows retail traders are currently SHORT on EUR/USD, with 63% of traders currently holding short positions (as of this writing). At DailyFX we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment resulting in a short-term upside bias.
Contact and followWarrenon Twitter:@WVenketas
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.