Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

Free Trading Guides
Please try again

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar Events


Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events






More View More
British Pound Weekly Forecast: GBP/USD Repairing the Recent Damage

British Pound Weekly Forecast: GBP/USD Repairing the Recent Damage

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist


GBP/USD - Prices, Charts, and Analysis

  • Cable benefits from the best of both worlds.
  • The UK economic calendar is light on data and events next week.
GBP Forecast
GBP Forecast
Recommended by Nick Cawley
Get Your Free GBP Forecast
Get My Guide

Breaking News: UK Fiscal Statement Urges Citizens to Tighten Belts, GBP Drops

This week’s UK Fiscal Statement, a mixture of tax rises and spending cuts announced by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, may begin the process of restoring the UK’s battered reputation, according to the Institute of Fiscal Studies.

‘The swing over a couple of months from Kwasi Kwarteng’s fiscal loosening to a big fiscal tightening is a belated recognition of some harsh financial realities…the Chancellor will be hoping that his clear commitment to fiscal responsibility and the independence of the bank of England, his full involvement of the Office for Budget Responsibility, and his less pugilistic approach to economic policy-making will be enough to restore the UK’s tattered international reputation. Let’s hope so.’

IFS Autumn Statement 2022 Response

While Sterling slipped immediately after the Autumn Statement, it has picked back up, especially against a weak US dollar. Whether this is the last of the Liz Truss/Kwasi Kwarteng GBP discount being washed out is debatable, but overall Sterling has performed well this week. And the pair are over 15 big figures higher than the late-September Truss/Kwarteng low.

Today’s UK retail sales were mildly Sterling positive, although a negative annual figure is nothing to shout about.

How to Trade GBP/USD
How to Trade GBP/USD
Recommended by Nick Cawley
How to Trade GBP/USD
Get My Guide

The UK, and the US, economic data and events calendar is very thin next week, while US markets will be extra quiet with the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday followed by Black Friday the next day.

For all market-moving data releases and economic events see the DailyFX Calendar.

A look at the daily GBP/USD chart shows the pair around one big figure higher on the week. The spike above 1.2000 on Tuesday was driven by a weaker-than-expected US PPI print, adding to market expectations that the Fed may pare back its aggressive monetary tightening policy. Recent Fed commentary however is trying to push back this sentiment, warning that rates are still going higher and for longer. If GBP/USD can keep support at 1.1740, then a two steps forward, one step back grind higher looks likely with the 200-day sma at 1.2225 and then horizontal resistance at 1.2292 the likely targets. A recent series of higher lows and higher highs add to the mildly-bullish backdrop.

GBP/USD Daily Price Chart – November 18, 2022


Chart via TradingView

GBP/USD Bearish
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 0% -17% -6%
Weekly -1% -4% -2%
What does it mean for price action?
Get My Guide

Retail Traders are Undecided

Retail trader data show 43.59% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.29 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 4.15% lower than yesterday and 2.22% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.81% lower than yesterday and 2.32% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed GBP/USD trading bias.

What is your view on the British Pound – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.