EUR/USD and EUR/GBP Prices, Charts, and Analysis
- EUR/USD is back above 1.0900 on US dollar weakness.
- Euro Area data releases are thin on the ground next week.
The Euro is pushing higher against the US dollar and is back above 1.0900 after the latest US Jobs Report (NFP) missed expectations. Wage data however remained strong, leaving the US dollar mixed to marginally lower post-release.
June Jobs Report: Mixed as NFP Misses Estimates but Unemployment Rate and Hourly Earnings Improve
The economic calendar is fairly bare next week with the final German inflation print (June) and the Euro Area and German ZEW releases (July) the main standouts.
For all market-moving events and economic data releases, see the real-time DailyFX Calendar
FX markets have been fairly quiet this week, not helped by the US Independence Day holiday on Tuesday with volumes low and volatility scarce. EUR/USD, the most actively traded pair in the foreign exchange market, has traded in a 100-pip range this week, and with a current 14-day ATR of 69 pips, it will have been very difficult to trade this range. Short-term support is seen on either side of 1.0835, while initial resistance is pegged around 1.0960.
EUR/USD Daily Price Chart – July 7, 2023
Chart via TradingView
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | 1% | -5% | -2% |
| Weekly | 9% | 5% | 7% |
Retail Trading Sentiment is Mixed
Retail trader data shows 44.15% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.27 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 20.29% lower than yesterday and 14.70% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 11.76% higher than yesterday and 10.56% higher than last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias.
The Euro’s struggle against Sterling continues with EUR/GBP testing a multi-month low again yesterday. The British Pound remains buoyed by soaring short-term UK bond yields as expectations continue to grow that the Bank of England will need to hike rates aggressively if it is to bring inflation under control. Two-year UK gilt yields hit 5.66% on Thursday, the highest level in over 15 years. The daily EUR/GBP remains biased to the downside with little in the way of near-term support if 0.85187 is broken convincingly. With interest rate expectations as they are, the June high of 0.8658 is unlikely to be broken in the short-to-medium term.
EUR/GBP Daily Price Chart – July 7, 2023
What is your view on EUR/USD and EUR/GBP – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.
