Euro Area Inflation Data
- Euro Area core inflation 5.4% vs prior 5.3% (exp. 5.5%)
- Euro Area headline inflation 5.5% vs prior 6.1% (exp. 5.6%)
- EUR/USD upside likely meet resistance on upward revisions to US Q1 GDP
- The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library
Core Inflation Rises Less Than Anticipated While Headline Inflation Cools Nicely
Core inflation in the Euro Area rose above last month’s 5.3% print but ended up less than estimates of 5.5%, settling at a marginally higher 5.4%. Headline inflation rose 0.3% month-on-month but came in lower than anticipated at 5.5% and much lower than last month’s figure of 6.1%. The disinflationary trend in headline inflation is unlikely to taper the ECB’s willingness to continue hiking rates due to the issue of core inflation remaining well off target.
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Divergence between core and headline measures of inflation has been commonly observed throughout developed economies and is on display to see in Europe. Yesterday’s German inflation report highlighted stubbornly high prices in Europe’s largest economy which appears to have been ineffective in outweighing disinflation witnessed in other Euro Area nations.
EUR/USD saw a slight lift in the pair on the news of higher, stubborn core inflation. Upside momentum may be difficult to come by as we head into the weekend given the US’s surprise upward revision in Q1 GDP from 1.4% to 2% - raising the likelihood of a 25 bps hike in the US in July. US core PCE data up next.
EUR/USD 5-Minute Chart
Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow
--- Written by Richard Snow for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow Richard on Twitter: @RichardSnowFX
