Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Select

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar Events

0

Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events

H

High

M

Medium

L

Low
More View More
Crude Oil Forecast: EU Sets Russian Oil Price Cap at $60, OPEC+ Unchanged

Crude Oil Forecast: EU Sets Russian Oil Price Cap at $60, OPEC+ Unchanged

What's on this page

BRENT CRUDE OIL (LCOc1) TALKING POINTS

  • $60 per barrel has been set in motion this Monday by G7.
  • OPEC+ decides not to alter output targets.
Oil Forecast
Oil Forecast
Recommended by Warren Venketas
Get Your Free Oil Forecast
Get My Guide

BRENT CRUDE OIL FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

Brent crude oil has already seen some significant price action this Monday after OPEC+ met and concluded that production will remain at prior output levels. The decision came in the midst of other fundamental factors including China’s easing of COVID restrictions as well as the EU’s price cap on Russian oil. G7 nations settled on a $60 per barrel figure on seaborne Russian oil and countries who wish to purchase above this threshold can do so without the Western services such as insurance and transport. Russia in turn stated that they would not be accepting of the price cap which could bring into question future supply that may boost the price of crude oil worldwide.

Trade Smarter - Sign up for the DailyFX Newsletter

Receive timely and compelling market commentary from the DailyFX team

Subscribe to Newsletter

CFTC BRENT CRUDE OIL POSITIONING:

image1.png

Source: Refinitiv

CFTC data shown above reveals another decline in long positioning for Brent crude oil but the prospect of supply cuts from Russia has propped up crude oil prices. From a dollar perspective, last week’s better than expected Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data has not translated through to this week with the greenback trading marginally weaker as focus shifts to U.S. ISM services PMI numbers (see economic calendar below). Services statistics carries more weight over manufacturing in the U.S. as the economy is more reliant on the services industry.

Foundational Trading Knowledge

Commodities Trading

Recommended by Warren Venketas

Start Course

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

image2.png

Source: DailyFX economic calendar

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

BRENT CRUDE (LCOc1) DAILY CHART -UNDATED

image3.png

Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG

Daily Brent crude price action reveals a long upper wick at present but the rest of the day will confirm whether this candlestick persists which will bring into consideration the 85.00 support handle. Fundamentally, supply concerns could be pointing to higher prices but markets will remain wary until there is further clarity around Russia’s reaction function.

Key resistance levels:

  • 87.28

Key support levels:

  • 85.00

IG CLIENT SENTIMENT: MIXED

IGCS shows retail traders are NET LONG on crude oil, with 73% of traders currently holding long positions (as of this writing). At DailyFX we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment but due to recent changes in long and short positioning we arrive at a short-term cautious bias.

Contact and followWarrenon Twitter:@WVenketas

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES