Live Data Coverage: October US NFP & Unemployment Rate
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US NFP Preview:
- Consensus forecasts are looking for jobs growth of +450K while the unemployment rate (U3) is anticipated to drop from 4.8% to 4.7%.
- Jobless claims at their pandemic-era lows coupled with strong private sector jobs figures point to more evidence that 4Q’21 US GDP is due for a sharp rebound.
- Will a strong US jobs support the Fed’s taper announcement earlier in the week? We’ll discuss these questions and more in context of the October US nonfarm payrolls report starting at 8:15 EDT/12:15 GMT. You can join live by watching the stream at the top of this note.
After Taper, Eyes on US Labor Market
The primary consideration for the US Dollar when it comes to the October US nonfarm payrolls report is whether or not the US labor market regained its momentum after weaker reports in August and September. The August print came at +235K while the September reading registered +194K.
According to a Bloomberg News survey, forecasters are looking for jobs growth of +470K while the unemployment rate (U3) is anticipated to drop from 4.7% to 4.8%. Meanwhile, the US labor force participation rate is due to rebound from 61.6% to a still-meager 61.7%.
The October ADP employment change report, which was released on Wednesday and came in at +571K, will likely bias expectations higher ahead of the official release this morning.
Atlanta Fed Jobs Growth Calculator (October 2021) (Chart 1)
Even if there are good US jobs data, there is still a long ways to go before the US reaches ‘full employment’ as experienced pre-pandemic. According to the Atlanta Fed Jobs Growth Calculator, the US economy needs +625K jobs growth per month over the next 12-months in order to return to the pre-pandemic US labor market of a 3.5% unemployment rate (U3) with a 63.4% labor force participation rate.
We’ll discuss these questions and more in context of the October US nonfarm payrolls report starting at 8:15 EDT/12:15 GMT. You can join live by watching the stream at the top of this note.
--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
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