Market sentiment analysis:
- Trader confidence in ‘risk-on’ currencies such as GBP, AUD, NZD and CAD is rising on hopes the Covid-19 pandemic may be close to peaking and on some better-than-expected Chinese trade data.
- This suggests the recent gains in these currencies against USD could continue despite the grim economic outlook.
Trader confidence rises
Traders have become more confident about the outlook for ‘risk-on’ currency pairs such as GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD following a less-bad-than-expected set of Chinese trade numbers and hopes that the coronavirus pandemic may be nearing its peak.
Stimulus packages late last week from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have helped improve sentiment too, as has news that some restrictions are being lifted in countries like Austria and Spain. While the pandemic will still hit the global economy hard, confidence is growing that a depression may be avoided.
AUD/USD Price Chart, Daily Timeframe (January 6 – April 14, 2020)
Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image)
Confidence in gold continues to rise too, suggesting that some safe havens as well as ‘risk-on’ assets are benefiting from a return to the markets by investors who had previously sought refuge in cash.
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | -6% | 3% | -2% |
| Weekly | 3% | -11% | -4% |
Dollar, Gold, Yen: What are the Top Safe Havens of 2020?
In this webinar, I looked at the trends in the major currency, commodity and stock markets, at the forward-looking data on the economic calendar this week, at the IG Client Sentiment page on the DailyFX website, and at the IG Client Sentiment reports that accompany it. You might also like to check out the DailyFX Trading Global Markets Decoded podcasts.
--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor
Feel free to contact me via the comments section below
