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Has the USD Topped?

The US Dollar Index (DXY) reversed off 2018 slope resistance last week with price posting an outside-daily reversal on Thursday. The move leaves the risk lower for the greenback while below the high-day close at 94.86. We’re looking for some follow through this week with setups across the USD majors in play. Keep in mind it’s the last full week of 2Q / June trade- look to reduce exposure and adjust positioning heading into the close of the week.

Key Levels in Focus

DXY – Key weekly support at 93.89-94.20- close below to validate reversal. Look for a hold below the 200-day moving average around 95 IF price is going to resume lower.

EUR/USD – Price is testing 2016 slope support- break targets 1.1448. Key Resistance 1.1910/30

GBP/USD – Good response to 1.3164 support zone last week- Initial resistance 1.3330- breach targets 1.35

USD/JPY – Initial support targets at 109.18 backed by 108.80. Initial resistance at the 200-day moving average (~110.20s) with bearish invalidation at 110.70/88.

USDCAD – Near-term risk is lower while below 1.3376- Break below 1.3220s needed to validate reversal.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Highlighting this week’s economic calendar will be the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decision on Wednesday night and the release of the May Core-Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE- the Fed’s preferred gauge on inflation) on Friday. In this webinar we review updated technical setups on DXY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/CAD, Crude Oil, Gold, SPX (S&P500), GER30 (DAX), and EUR/JPY.

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KeyEvent Risk This Week

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk

Other Setups in Play

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at