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USD/CAD Pivots Near Longer Term Level While Crude Oil Prices Grind a Triangle

USD/CAD Pivots Near Longer Term Level While Crude Oil Prices Grind a Triangle

Jeremy Wagner, CEWA-M, Head of Education


This is a recording of a US Opening Bell webinar from August 7, 2017.

In today’s US Opening Bell webinar, we discussed technical Elliott Wave patterns on key markets for this week. Some of the key markets we analyzed include Dow Jones Industrial Average, USD/CAD, Crude Oil, Gold, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD.

1.24 has been a key level we have been watching in USD/CAD since early May 2017. Since prices have reached that target two weeks ago, we are monitoring the shape and structure of the bounce for clues if this is the start of a new up trend or merely a counter trend bounce higher.

Looking to crude oil prices for additional clues, oil appears stuck in a triangle. A dip back into the $42-$45 zone may be an area for the triangle to terminate and offer bulls an opportunity to get long. For more study on how to identify and trade Elliott Wave triangles, register and watch this hour long webinar recording.

Much like crude oil, gold prices appear to be in the latter stages of a triangle pattern as well. A dip back into $1210-$1240 may be a support zone for the triangle pattern to possibly terminate. According to the pattern, this would imply another burst higher out of that zone that may drive into $1350 area.

Also, EUR/USD has continued its trend to the upside. It appears we may be getting close to the end of a third wave in an impulse (view a webinar recording on impulse patterns, how to identify and trade it). If so, then prices may begin softening a bit towards 1.12-1.13 in a fourth wave in the coming days.

The recent GBP/USD break above 1.3048 opens the door towards higher prices. We are viewing this current move higher as a terminal and ending wave. There is a stiff wall of resistance and technical levels appearing near 1.3450. If prices make it up to this level, we are anticipating a reaction lower. If our wave count is correct, then this reaction lower could be the start of a new down trend.

IG client sentiment for cable has slowly shifted towards the bulls. This could be a subtle clue that the shorts are losing patience and giving up. This is counter-intuitive in that it actually becomes a bearish signal. The current sentiment reading is -1.43. View the live trader positioning to see if it continues to shift.

We discussed this market in depth in the Q3 forecast for GBP written back in late June.

---Written by Jeremy Wagner, Head Trading Instructor, DailyFX EDU

Discuss these markets with Jeremy in Monday’s US Opening Bell webinar.

Follow me on Twitter at @JWagnerFXTrader .

See Jeremy’s recent articles at his Bio Page.

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.