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Euro, US Dollar Trends Nearing a Turning Point?

Euro, US Dollar Trends Nearing a Turning Point?

2017-07-24 07:26:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Euro at risk as economic data, ECB comments test resilience
  • US Dollar eyeing FOMC, Q2 GDP data as rate hike bets fade
  • Pound may fall as GDP figures show Brexit uncertainty impact

What will drive longer-term market trends? See our forecasts here!

The Euro has managed to defy a run of softer economic data outcomes and a dovish ECB in recent weeks. That resilience will be tested anew as flash PMI and CPI figures cross the wires and the central bank's Director General for Economics Frank Smets sounds off.

The US Dollar will look for a lifeline in the FOMC policy announcement and second-quarter GDP figures having tumbled amid fading rate hike speculation. A status-quo statement from the rate-setting committee coupled with recovering growth may see investors rethink bets on a dovish pivot from Chair Yellen and company.

GDP numbers for the three months through March are also due from the UK. A slowdown in the on-year growth rate is expected, which may suggest that the cooling effects of Brexit-related uncertainty are finally starting to emerge. That may dim near-term BOE rate hike prospects, sending the Pound lower.

Australian CPI figures are forecast to show the headline inflation rate rose to 2.2 percent in the second quarter, making a three-year high. The outcome may do little for the Aussie Dollar however as markets discount the likelihood of RBA tightening after Deputy Governor Debelle forcefully pushed back on such notions last week.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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