Webinar: Priced-In v/s Not Priced-In - FOMC Preview (12.13.2016)
- In this webinar, we used price action to analyze markets ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC rate decision. As we move into tomorrow’s Fed meeting, the U.S. Dollar is remaining near 13-year highs, U.S. stocks are at all-time-highs, and the general expectation is that the Fed is going to hike tomorrow while getting more hawkish towards rate hikes in 2017 and thereafter. The bar is incredibly high for continuation of the US-moves as we go into tomorrow’s rate decision.
- The central theme of today’s webinar was: What’s priced-in and what isn’t? As in, investors have been pricing-in a rate hike from the Fed since the U.S. Presidential Election. Few are expecting a no-hike scenario; so we can probably safely say that tomorrow’s rate hike is ‘priced-in’ the market before the rate decision even happens. But given that tomorrow’s hike is already likely priced-in, what could drive the U.S. Dollar-higher?
- We’d likely need a more-hawkish Fed for 2017 and thereafter. If the Fed signals three or more hikes for 2017, this could bring on that more-hawkish scenario. In those situations, USD/JPY could be attractive as a continuation-move in the Dollar could be paired-up with what’s been an extremely weak Japanese Yen.
- But there’s also the possibility for the scenario in which the Fed hikes tomorrow, but the U.S. Dollar remains confined below resistance at 101.80 (DXY), which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2002-2011 major move in the Greenback. In this scenario, short-USD exposure could be sought against the British Pound, as we had discussed in-depth in this morning’s Market Talk entitled, Why Did the British Pound Stop Going Down?
--- Written by James Stanley, Analyst for DailyFX.com
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