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Strategy Video: The Difficulty In Trading A Great Idea

Strategy Video: The Difficulty In Trading A Great Idea

2016-09-16 02:02:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • Great trading ideas go nowhere unless there is an instrument and market that can transmit those beliefs
  • A lack of options on general themes like risk trends and monetary policy expectations has grown more prominent
  • Strong fundamental and market themes can shift the market's prioritization and change once preferred drivers

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the SSI readings on DailyFX's sentiment page.

There are three steps in applying a trade: establish an idea, chose an ideal 'vehicle' and execute. Most traders focus their time and effort on the first step with significantly less work dedicated to the other two. Yet, the best ideas will not produce sound trades if the entire process is not given the proper consideration. While always a dynamic element, the second stage of this procedure has become increasingly more difficult and important in the trading process.

This topic was born out of a series of disparate questions and topics that have arisen over the past few weeks that ultimately have a common root. In a choice of an Australian Dollar pair, the question arose as to why AUD/USD was chosen rather than a few other similar crosses. We recently discussed some of the short-falls of the surge in popularity of ETFs and particularly volatility ETFs as traders attempt to take advantage of changing activity levels. And, a recent Strategy Development webinar covered the remarkable persistence of diehard bullish views of Gold. All three of these issues have their roots in connecting the best trade vehicle to a clear opportunity.

One of the primary difficulties in turning idea into viable trade is the trouble in finding an instrument or market that will accurately reflect the view or topic in the same time frame. Risk trends is one of the best examples of this trouble as government bonds and Treasuries have absorbed a speculative slant that has altered their safe haven appeal, while the convergence of global monetary policy has dulled the FX market's ability to react to carry appetite. Another distortion of instrument selection is the rise of conflicting themes and what the market prioritizes. Should we treat the Dollar as a haven or a preferred 'carry' currency for its unique lean towards rate hikes? We discuss the importance and difficulty in selecting the best instruments to execute a trade idea in today's Strategy Video.

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