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AUD/USD Sentiment and Positioning for the RBA Rate Decision

AUD/USD Sentiment and Positioning for the RBA Rate Decision

2016-06-07 00:54:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • RBA expected to keep policy rate unchanged, spotlight on forward guidance
  • Aussie at trend-defining technical resistance level below 0.74 figure vs. USD
  • Net-long speculative positioning setting argues in favor of a downside bias

Are traders long or short the Australian Dollar? Find out here!

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to keep its benchmark cash rate unchanged at today's monetary policy meeting. The priced-in probability of a cut is a mere 7 percent, according to what is implied in OIS rates. Still, the 12-month outlook calls for at least 25 basis points in further easing and envisions a 66 percent probability of 50 bps in cuts. With that in mind, traders will keenly monitor the statement accompanying the announcement to gauge when stimulus expansion will resume.

Technically speaking, AUD/USD finds itself at pivotal resistance below the 0.74 figure after surging on the back of deeply disappointing US payrolls data last week. Prices are perched squarely at a trend line guiding the down move since late April, a barrier reinforced by a horizontal pivot in play since October 2015. A break above this barrier would mark a near-term trend shift in favor of the upside. However, this is also a logical juncture for a corrective bounce to fizzle and give way to down trend resumption. The DailyFX SSI positioning indicator remains net-long, arguing in favor of a downside scenario.

--- Created by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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