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Euro and European Stability Increasingly At-Risk on Brexit Fears

Euro and European Stability Increasingly At-Risk on Brexit Fears

2016-02-24 01:12:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist

Talking Points:

  • The Euro is dropping alongside the Pound among the crosses with latter leading the fundamental drive
  • A possible exit by the UK from the EU represents an existential crisis for the Euro economic conglomerate and Euro
  • Cracks in the Euro-area's stability add a new face to risk and monetary policy implications innate to the Euro

See how retail traders are positioning in Euro and Pound pairs on DailyFX or bring the figures to your charts using the FXCM SSI snapshot.

Typically, it is changes in the influential and large Eurozone that carry over to major counterparts - be it UK, Switzerland, Japan, Emerging Markets and others. However, it seems the roles have reversed somewhat as now the United Kingdom is shaping the destiny for the Euro-area and its frequently battered currency. The Euro is no stranger to crises of confidence over the past years as the debt crisis that started with Greece embroiled the entire region and then once again returned to focus on Greece. The long-term issues were not resolved and an anti-austerity movement continues to build steam. Yet, with the Euro there is a tendency to see systemic fundamental fears sink into the background if they don't escalate immediately. The threat that the United Kingdom may decide to leave the EU and open a broad doorway for other wavering members to follow - even see a EZ member exit - represents a serious existential threat. Can the 'Brexit' override the Euro's funding status in the carry trade and speculation for ECB stimulus? We cover that in today's Strategy Video.

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