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EUR/USD Weathers ECB Only to Face NFPs, Oil and Kiwi Still Diving

EUR/USD Weathers ECB Only to Face NFPs, Oil and Kiwi Still Diving

2017-03-10 00:37:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist

Talking Points:

• The ECB rate decision was Thursday's top event risk, but a steady course wouldn't motivate the Euro

• NFPs ahead will contend with a skewed risk and rate view as well as FOMC countdown to generate volatility

• Additional top event risk includes a list of UK reports and Canadian jobs, Kiwi and oil prices remain standouts

Sign up for the live NFPs coverage and see what other live coverage is scheduled to cover key event risk for the FX and capital markets on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

Day two of our 48 hour run of heavy event risk is ahead. And, traders are no doubt hoping for more reaction to the March NFPs. Market's through Thursday were still lacking for drive - particularly along the more prominent fundamental lines. Top event risk through the past session was the combination of the ECB (European Central Bank) rate decision and EU Summit for the Euro and European assets. That said, the central bank's decision to keep a steady course and lawmakers lack of significant guidance from the first day of the conference offered market participants little to work with. EUR/USD bounced in its three-week range between 1.0650 - 1.0500, but there was little contribution to amplitude and certainly no effort to extend existing trends. Without reference to the rise of populism with EU elections ahead, Greece bailout progress and US trade relations among other critical topics; focus will be further concentrated for day two updates Friday.

While the Euro is still a fundamental target, the top event risk for the upcoming session is the US labor statistics for February. Following the ADP private payroll report's blowout reading for the same month Wednesday, anticipation for the NFPs has certainly be heightened. However, that doesn't alter the heavy fundamental skew that handicaps the speculative reaction to the data. Risk trends are still very buoyant - even after the recent S&P 500 and Dow slip - and the market's outlook for a March 15 FOMC hike stands at 100 percent. Furthering these already saturated views would be very difficult to accomplish. Alternatively, shaking loose some speculative complacency on both fronts is more easily accomplished. There are certain 'risk off' and Dollar bearish options that can supply some opportunity for the limited engagement theme with a heavy focus to the FOMC decision next week.

Where EU Summit and NFPs is top docket listing, there are plenty of other outlets for possible sparks for volatility - though they should all be viewed for the restraints in market conditions. The Sterling faces a significant wave of event risk ahead between UK GDP estimates (NIESR), trade, manufacturing and construction updates. This is a comprehensive economic update and it can supply good fodder for next week's BoE decision. The question for market leverage is whether it can alter views on Brexit and find a prone Pound cross. That is more difficult to achieve. Then there are the impressive moves from the New Zealand Dollar and Oil which don't seem to be tethered to strong fundamental motivation. The currency has dropped 7 consecutive days in NZD/USD and an equally weighted index basis, taking out considerable technical levels along the way. Oil extended Wednesday's remarkable dive and critical support break. Will these unattached moves continue to supply trading opportunity? We discuss the scheduled and unscheduled market opportunities ahead in today's Trading Video.

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