We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Support and resistance are the cornerstone of technical analysis, making it the foundation that you build your knowledge on. Build a stronger foundation here: https://t.co/yXLaRpl90I https://t.co/MhP7opgk4a
  • Investors in stocks, commodity currencies and energy have been praying for a massive fiscal bazooka to combat the virus effects. It looks like they’re going to get it. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/e2ciGSYftY https://t.co/Udoi5UMJrl
  • The ‘V-shaped’ recovery in USD/JPY just failed to hit its target and is now moving lower again. Important support is now being tested. Get your $USDJPY technical analysis from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/koiac0Rxvs https://t.co/CsVsS7PVMV
  • The Australian Dollar has been lifted from its multi-year lows by hopes that global financial authorities can fend off the worst of the #coronavirus‘ effects. Get your $AUDUSD market update from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/GC5pwNbY9S https://t.co/OryobNq7uL
  • Before considering to enter a position, price action must come into contact with the upper or lower channel line at least three times. Learn how to validate a channel here: https://t.co/Rd5hDm7gRo https://t.co/mubPgmDRRY
  • A tidal wave of cash waits to return to virus-battered assets, backstopped by huge stimulus. It is unlikely to deploy until infection slows, whatever the US administration prefers. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/OWOi2HxejD https://t.co/jvMXT7te1h
  • The bullish engulfing candle is one of the forex market’s most clear-cut price action signals for reversals and continuation. Learn more about this price action trading signal here: https://t.co/edEHzyoCJT https://t.co/vHPSW7Vm96
  • It was a big week for GBP/USD as Cable crushed shorts, rallying more than 1,000 pips off of last week’s lows. Get your $GBPUSD technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/n6vYfe6Gfh https://t.co/zQq74Zzxsv
  • The bull flag pattern is a great pattern to add to a forex trader’s technical arsenal. Explosive moves are often associated with the bull flag. Learn more about the bull flag pattern here: https://t.co/ZNRBvNELeJ https://t.co/CKkWNMLkuw
  • The US Dollar could rise if key ISM, PMI and nonfarm payrolls data causes recession fears to swell and rekindles appetite for the haven-linked Greenback. Get your $USD market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/iTlnxWuSqn https://t.co/brEsDw2a5K
Dollar Faces Reversal Risk After Trump Presser, What About SPX?

Dollar Faces Reversal Risk After Trump Presser, What About SPX?

2017-01-12 05:42:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

  • It wasn't what US President-elect Trump said in his press conference Wednesday, but rather what was not said
  • Dollar volatility surged during the event, but a bearish lean sets up Fed speak to for EUR/USD and USD/JPY make-or-break
  • BoE Governor Carney lifted his Brexit risk assessment and thereby the Pound, Bitcoin tumbles as China threatens to crackdown

See the DailyFX Analysts' 1Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

The joint rally between the US Dollar and general risk trends (paced by benchmarks like the S&P 500) has found another crack in its complacency-smoothed veneer. This past session, the ICE Dollar Index (DXY) suffered an extreme spasm of volatility intraday around US President-elect Donald Trump's first press conference since winning the election. What was remarkable from this speech was not the items covered. Rather, what investors noticed was the lack of clarity on those themes that matter most to markets and the exchange rate. While there were references to Russia and Mexico (both countries and currencies have been in the crosshairs), there were no details on the fiscal stimulus and tax cut proposals so prominent on the campaign trail or certainty on general trade policy.

The Dollar's charge over the fourth quarter has found two significant footholds: quickly rising Fed rate speculation and the FX equivalent of schadenfreude that results from the US following a path towards protectionism. While Trump did mention a boarder tax, the scope of the foreign tax was attached to US companies that moved abroad. That takes some of the wind out of the sales that a withdrawn US would see capital repatriation for short-term gains. The more stable pillar of the Greenback's move has been the market's warming to a hawkish Fed bearing. Without fiscal stimulus and trade barriers bolstering growth and inflation respectively, the pressure for the FOMC to step on the gas eases. Though the Dollar slipped this past session, it hasn't marked breaks outside of USD/CAD (which thereby should be eyed with skepticism). If the import inflation figures and Fed speak due Thursday add to the weight, we may find a shove to more significant moves.

With the ICE Dollar Index facing the past month's support, a technical break add fuel to a fundamental ignition. This translates into interesting technical levels like 1.0625 for EUR/USD, 1.0100 for USD/CHF and momentum to the already-remarkable progress USD/JPY has made since breaking 116. If this last pair is to make a convincing move, deeper sentiment channels should be tapped. As it stands, the S&P 500 and other favorite metrics for 'risk trends' have not shown the same wavering that the benchmark currency has. Meanwhile, the Euro will look to the minutes from the ECB's last monetary policy meeting for specifics on a bold expansion of stimulus and the Pound is weighing how much confidence will be distilled from BoE Governor Carney's assessment that Brexit risks were less severe than previously anticipated. And, special mention should be made for Bitcoin - the popular cryptocurrency - as a review from Chinese officials looks like a possible crackdown on a capital leak. We discuss all this and more in today's Trading Video.

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.