News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here:
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilising differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here:
  • Traders tend to overcomplicate things when they’re starting out in the forex market. This fact is unfortunate but undeniably true. Simplify your trading strategy with these four indicators here:
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here:
  • “The UK and EU have agreed to return to the negotiating table to try to agree a post-#Brexit trade deal. But on Friday, a joint statement said ‘significant divergences’ remained.” - BBC News #GBP
  • Multiple time frame analysis follows a top down approach when trading and allows traders to gauge the longer-term trend while spotting ideal entries on a smaller time frame chart. Learn how to incorporate multiple time frame analysis here:
  • Forex sentiment analysis can be a useful tool to help traders understand and act on price behavior. Learn how to get the most out of understanding trader sentiment here:
  • The rising wedge is a popular reversal pattern that is predictive in nature and can give traders a clue to the direction and distance of the next price move. Incorporate the rising wedge in your trading strategy and learn more here:
  • Both the S&P 500 and $EURUSD will enter the coming week with momentum to their back. What can trip up the rallies? What could keep them going? My overview for the week ahead:
  • After the recent strength of EUR/USD, a period of consolidation is likely ahead of two critical meetings: of the European Central Bank and the European Council. Get your $EURUSD market update from @MartinSEssex here:
Year End Trading Better Suited to Short-Term USD/JPY Moves than EUR/USD Trend

Year End Trading Better Suited to Short-Term USD/JPY Moves than EUR/USD Trend

2016-12-21 02:35:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • Liquidity is fading as holiday conditions approach, and trading should adapt to suit these circumstances
  • Remarkable trends from US equities and the Dollar can extend gains, but momentum is unlikely to make for rewarding trend trades
  • Limitations in market depth can leverage volatility and charge counter-trend delevering, putting runs like SPX's and EURUSD's at risk

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the DailyFX SSI readings on the sentiment page.

The markets have not eased off on the remarkable trends that pushed the likes of the S&P 500 to records, EUR/USD to 14-year lows or USD/JPY on its strongest three-month surge in 21 years. That raises the risk profile of the market's prevailing exposure, but it does not ensure an impending reversal. The skew between probability and potential should be monitored closely by traders, however, as convenience and complacency can come at a high cost. While an extension of existing trends is a more likely scenario, the progress that such a stretched exposure is likely to make when the markets are thinned by holiday trade would likely be meager. In contrast, the risk of a counter-trend move may be less probable; but its impact would likely be more extraordinary. That scenario is only heightened by liquidity conditions which would amplify rather than curb a panic deleveraging.

To adapt to such market conditions, traders should consider their risk tolerance, existing exposure and trading time frame. Long-held risk appetite-oriented trades may not be in jeopardy at appealing dollar-cost-averaging, but expectations for further returns during this lull should be held in check. Those trying to jump on the band wagon now though are throwing caution to the wind. In these conditions, it is better to either stick with long-held profitable investments or transition to short-term trading. I prefer turning down the charts to four hour candles with greater emphasis on technicals and looking to event risk as a short-lived volatility charge. That would mean avoiding jumping on to mature trends like the S&P 500 bull trend and even the renewed EUR/USD drop below 1.05 to instead watch for swings from USD/JPY and GBP/USD.

Through the end of this week, the fundamental threats are diminished significantly. The Bank of Japan's rate decision has marked the last major central bank rate decision for the year and the last high profile event for the week. Themes such as global speculative complacency, Brexit speculation and the US-Chinese relationship are now sleeping giants. There are a few scheduled pieces of event risk to keep tabs on - New Zealand 3Q GDP and the Fed's favored inflation indicator (PCE deflator) are notable figures - but the need for 'surprise' and the staying power present a high boundary. We discuss trading through heading into the holiday weekend in today's Trading Video.

Year End Trading Better Suited to Short-Term USD/JPY Moves than EUR/USD TrendYear End Trading Better Suited to Short-Term USD/JPY Moves than EUR/USD Trend

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.