News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Airline stocks retracing losses, some already in positive territory, despite the large sell-off in the market. News that the US will overhaul its COVID-19 travel rules and lift some restrictions are good news for the airline industry $JETS $UAL $AAL $ALK
  • The S&P 500 have taken a clear dive to start the week and fear of full risk aversion is gaining traction. DailyFX's @JohnKicklighter discusses what to expect in the markets this week!
  • $USD still pulling back from resistance. 93.43 was the Q1 swing high, still playing a role in $DXY support potential around prior res, ~93.20
  • despite the theatrics elsewhere, $Gold has held last week's low through this week's open, at least so far even getting a bump higher. resistance potential 1769-1775 $GC $GLD
  • While there is no doubt a risk aversion wave at play now, it can still burn itself out with years of complacency and the expectations of Fed on Wed (anticipation can take the wind out of sails). But if/when the Dollar takes off pre-FOMC, that would be.
  • Bitcoin probing Fibo support zone ~42,588 #Bitcoin $BTCUSD
  • EUR/USD extends the series of lower highs and lows from the previous week as European Central Bank (ECB) officials defend the dovish forward guidance for monetary policy. Get your $EURUSD market update from @DavidJSong here:
  • There are reasonable disputes over where technical boundaries exist from people with different views, charts, time frames, etc. I think this $SPX gap down and drive below the 50-day SMA clearly qualifies as a break
  • Some people like a quiet market that edges higher consistently day in and day out. I am not one of those people. I like volatility
  • 🇺🇸 NAHB Housing Market Index (SEP) Actual: 76 Expected: 74 Previous: 75
Year End Trading Better Suited to Short-Term USD/JPY Moves than EUR/USD Trend

Year End Trading Better Suited to Short-Term USD/JPY Moves than EUR/USD Trend

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • Liquidity is fading as holiday conditions approach, and trading should adapt to suit these circumstances
  • Remarkable trends from US equities and the Dollar can extend gains, but momentum is unlikely to make for rewarding trend trades
  • Limitations in market depth can leverage volatility and charge counter-trend delevering, putting runs like SPX's and EURUSD's at risk

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the DailyFX SSI readings on the sentiment page.

The markets have not eased off on the remarkable trends that pushed the likes of the S&P 500 to records, EUR/USD to 14-year lows or USD/JPY on its strongest three-month surge in 21 years. That raises the risk profile of the market's prevailing exposure, but it does not ensure an impending reversal. The skew between probability and potential should be monitored closely by traders, however, as convenience and complacency can come at a high cost. While an extension of existing trends is a more likely scenario, the progress that such a stretched exposure is likely to make when the markets are thinned by holiday trade would likely be meager. In contrast, the risk of a counter-trend move may be less probable; but its impact would likely be more extraordinary. That scenario is only heightened by liquidity conditions which would amplify rather than curb a panic deleveraging.

To adapt to such market conditions, traders should consider their risk tolerance, existing exposure and trading time frame. Long-held risk appetite-oriented trades may not be in jeopardy at appealing dollar-cost-averaging, but expectations for further returns during this lull should be held in check. Those trying to jump on the band wagon now though are throwing caution to the wind. In these conditions, it is better to either stick with long-held profitable investments or transition to short-term trading. I prefer turning down the charts to four hour candles with greater emphasis on technicals and looking to event risk as a short-lived volatility charge. That would mean avoiding jumping on to mature trends like the S&P 500 bull trend and even the renewed EUR/USD drop below 1.05 to instead watch for swings from USD/JPY and GBP/USD.

Through the end of this week, the fundamental threats are diminished significantly. The Bank of Japan's rate decision has marked the last major central bank rate decision for the year and the last high profile event for the week. Themes such as global speculative complacency, Brexit speculation and the US-Chinese relationship are now sleeping giants. There are a few scheduled pieces of event risk to keep tabs on - New Zealand 3Q GDP and the Fed's favored inflation indicator (PCE deflator) are notable figures - but the need for 'surprise' and the staying power present a high boundary. We discuss trading through heading into the holiday weekend in today's Trading Video.

Year End Trading Better Suited to Short-Term USD/JPY Moves than EUR/USD TrendYear End Trading Better Suited to Short-Term USD/JPY Moves than EUR/USD Trend

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.