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Dollar and Oil Prices Rally On Fed, OPEC Views

Dollar and Oil Prices Rally On Fed, OPEC Views

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

• The most impressive move in the market this past session was easily the 9 percent surge in US oil after the OPEC meet

• A combination of robust private payrolls, Fed speak and inflation statistics levered another Dollar rally

• Though there is noteworthy event risk immediately ahead, account for the near NFPs and Italy Referendum events

See what live coverage is scheduled to cover key event risk for the FX and capital markets on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

Skepticism was beat back this past session. The market was skeptical of a production deal at the highly contentious OPEC meeting, but the group announced a 1.2 million barrel cut to its daily output that represents approximately 1 percent of the world's supply. An already stretched Dollar in the meanwhile seems to have fully priced in the Fed's next move - a rate hike on December 14th. And yet, the combination of the private payrolls from ADP, Fed speak and inflation data managed to squeeze another rally from the currency. Will the markets continue to defy expected limitations?

In response to the production cut, oil leveraged a massive 9 percent rally. That is the biggest move in nine months and comparable to moves at the start of thy year that marked a change in sentiment around the commodity not to mention a clear shift in trend. The question is how much run this shift has. The market is still short of the 15-month range high around 52 and an eventual cut certainly has some presence in current prices. For the Dollar, the past session's rally doesn't carry the same degree of statistical weight. The swell pushed the ICE Dollar Index back up towards its recently-set 13-year high; but the next phase of a true break will require a degree of conviction that will be difficult to achieve on rate forecasts.

While there are different scenarios for the Dollar, the options for the divergent outcomes are not evenly balanced amongst all majors. The head-and-shoulders patterns for EUR/USD is still in place. Fundamentally, the risk of a shift exposes USD/JPY as it nears the critical technical level that marked the strong bear wave from February. Ahead, there is another round of noteworthy economic data, but not the mix that shows high promise of the drama after the OPEC meeting. Heavier event risk stands just a little further out. NFPs and the Italian Referendum will draw our attention forward and make it difficult to secure decisive trends before they are resolved. We discuss these market developments and opportunities in today's Trading Video.

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