News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇦🇺 Inflation Rate YoY (Q3) Actual: 0.7% Expected: 0.7% Previous: -0.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-28
  • 🇦🇺 Inflation Rate QoQ (Q3) Actual: 1.6% Expected: 1.5% Previous: -1.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-28
  • What is the US Dollar outlook based on retail positioning ahead of the November 3rd presidential election? $EURUSD may fall as $AUDUSD rises. Which way could $USDCAD capitulate ahead? - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2020/10/28/US-Dollar-Sentiment-Outlook-EURUSD-AUDUSD-USDJPY-Retail-Positioning.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/nrELoX9dli
  • #ASX200 bursting higher after falling back to the H&S neckline and 50% Fib (6013.46) A push back towards the 6,100 mark could be on the cards if resistance at the 38.2% Fib (6069.65) gives way. #XJO https://t.co/zdOqIjcbbE
  • The AUD/USD exchange rate appears to be struggling to overcome key chart resistance ahead of Q3 inflation data as the RBA hints at further easing. Get your $AUDUSD market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/TJSXzD5qRB https://t.co/idsNEKpiym
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 Inflation Rate QoQ (Q3) due at 00:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 1.5% Previous: -1.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-28
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 Inflation Rate YoY (Q3) due at 00:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 0.7% Previous: -0.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-28
  • Double top looking more plausible in the #SPX500, hinting a significant risk-off move is brewing across the broader markets. Confirmation on a daily close below 3198-3231 area, it seems #SP500 #stocks #technicalanalysis https://t.co/bhHZtJyoMN
  • Heads Up:🇨🇳 Communist Party Annual Meeting due at 00:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-28
  • The British Pound, Australian Dollar and US Dollar may all experienced heightened periods of volatility as geopolitical risks in North America, Asia and Europe rattle global financial markets. Get your $GBPUSD market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/0EFToM5Y8I https://t.co/JcOmMXJs1l
Faltering Faith in Central Banks Lead Bonds, Euro, Pound to Stumble

Faltering Faith in Central Banks Lead Bonds, Euro, Pound to Stumble

2016-10-28 00:47:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

  • Global government bonds slid this past session as confidence in stimulus-propped assets struck the core asset
  • Euro rally falters after Nowotny says December ECB meet will weigh Taper, Pound's GDP lift cut down by Hammond
  • Top event risk ahead are the US 3Q GDP report and Standard & Poor's UK sovereign credit rating update

See the DailyFX Analysts' 4Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

When looking to assess global market sentiment, the first instinct is to evaluate the benchmarks on the 'risky' end of the spectrum. This past session, the US equity benchmarks were lower but global shares held up. Emerging market and high-yield standards took a moderate dive. But, Yen crosses were up on the day. The mix was not the highly correlated and motivated trend of capital away from troubled assets into those that were absolute havens. However, there was an unusual outlet for sentiment in the form of government debt. US Treasuries extended a retreat to 5-month lows with its counterparts in Europe and Asia following suit. Normally the slide in bonds - and rise in yields - would be a sign of risk appetite or optimism of rate hikes. After years of QE programs and heavy central bank distortion, it now takes on the guise of underlying risk aversion via the central banks' primary financial transmission tool.

Risk aversion has struggled to gain traction since markets broke tempo from the persistent advance back in 2015. An increasing safety net of global monetary policy and desperation for return cemented complacency. Yet, erosion in a crucial structural piece like Treasuries may finally tip the scales. In the meantime, traditional economic catalysts can add or subtract weight. The after-hours release of Google and Amazon earnings (the former better than expected and latter worse) will put the tech-oriented Nasdaq in a position of judgement. The 3Q US GDP figure on tap Friday will offer a more decisive read. A weak showing from the world's largest economy poses the greatest threat given the current backdrop on sentiment and the high forecast (2.6 percent) sets a high watermark.

Another aspect of the US growth report that will carry asymmetrical influence is rate speculation. With Fed Fund futures pricing in a 72 percent probability of a hike on December 14th, driving expectations higher will require a more exceptional outcome to carry through the next 6-8 weeks to the actual meeting. Alternatively, a weak showing could permanently instill pessimism and dovishness. Heading into the release, the Dollar has firmed once again on the weakness of its major counterparts. ECB's Nowotny affirming the December 8th meeting would establish the future of its QE program while UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Hammond voiced caution following the stronger UK GDP release left the Greenback one of the few viable outlets. For the Pound, traders should be sure to keep an eye on the Standard & Poor's UK sovereign debt update. Brexit talk is a constant driver for the Sterling. We discuss event risk and driving themes in today's Trading Video.

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES