News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Industrial Production YoY Prel (SEP) due at 23:50 GMT (15min) Previous: -13.8%
  • 🇯🇵 Unemployment Rate (SEP) Actual: 3.0% Expected: 3.1% Previous: 3.0%
  • What is the US Dollar outlook based on retail positioning ahead of the November 3rd presidential election? EUR/USD may fall as AUD/USD rises. Which way could USD/CAD capitulate? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Unemployment Rate (SEP) due at 23:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 3.1% Previous: 3.0%
  • - #Biden is leading in the polls but a last-minute surprise could be in the cards - #Covid-19 case spike, fiscal stalemate souring sentiment and derailing outlook - #AUDUSD puncturing support at 0.7018 may open the door to further declines
  • The Dow Jones will look to earnings from Apple, which was once the largest component of the index. Get your #Dowjones market update from @PeterHanksFX here:
  • The Indian Rupee may weaken following a breakout higher in USD/INR. Despite rising global stock market volatility, the Nifty 50 has been holding its ground. Could it capitulate lower? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • Relief rally ahead for $AUDNZD? Bullish RSI divergence at key psychological support (1.0600) suggests a rebound back towards the 21-MA (1.0626) and 50-MA (1.0659) could be on the cards Conversely, a break below 1.0590 probably opens the door for further losses. $AUD $NZD
  • WTI Crude Oil fell to a fresh four-month-low this morning. This fresh low broke through range support that’s held for the better part of two months. Get your #crudeoil technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here:
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: -0.02% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.16% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.25% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.42% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.59% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.62% View the performance of all markets via
Dollar, Euro and Pound Await Fed, Draghi and Carney Commentary

Dollar, Euro and Pound Await Fed, Draghi and Carney Commentary

2016-10-25 02:10:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • Risk trends climb to start the week, but conviction lacking for equities, high yield, Yen crosses
  • USD/CAD tumbles then recovers on mistaken interpretation of misfired forward guidance
  • Watch central bank speak from Fed, ECB and BoE officials as sensitivity to policy forecasts intensifies

See the DailyFX Analysts' 4Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

The new trading week has kicked off with the familiar wrestle for control between the financial systems two dominant themes: risk trends and monetary policy. From the risk side, global equities jumped higher to rekindle hope that sidelined sentiment may be looking for a jumpstart this week. Yet there remains a high fundamental hurdle to reviving conviction in already stretched risk assets. The S&P 500 is still mired in three months of congestion, higher-risk benchmarks (emerging markets and high-yield) still struggle for momentum and volume, and FX-based risk trades (Yen crosses and AUD/USD) struggle to realign. There are breaks of necessity ahead on a range of charts which a modest risk swell may spur, but charge for lasting trends is likely beyond this theme's reach.

Monetary policy tides, on the other hand, is proving a more consistent and capable driver of market volatility. While the financial media likely attributes too much responsibility in the Dollar's climb to solidifying rate forecasts for December; there has been definitive speculation surrounding the Fed, ECB, BoE and even the BoC these past few weeks. It was the BoC (Bank of Canada) that generated an unexpected market surge through this past session when the market misinterpreted remarks from Governor Stephen Poloz. Seeing the sharp USD/CAD tumble, the central bank issued a clarification to the market that simply added another leg to the volatility. The sharp reversal has cast the tentative channel breakout from USD/CAD in doubt, but it has also affirmed the market's fixation on policy chatter.

With such a high degree of sensitivity in monetary policy, this upcoming 24 hours will be fundamentally loaded. Three of the world's largest central banks will see particularly important speeches delivered by key officials. In order of escalating influence, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart's speech will be the least likely to move markets as it is not expected to cover monetary policy or economic forecast. However, given the market impact of the last speech before the September FOMC meeting blackout; we shouldn't write this event off. ECB President Mario Draghi's lecture on monetary policy will draw a more tense crowd. Last week, the central bank deferred the expected Taper announcement. Perhaps Draghi and crew were looking for a less formal opportunity to float the idea, semi-officially. And, the most market-moving potent event will be BoE Governor Mark Carney's appearance before the House of Lords speaking on his Brexit assessment. What can move the markets in session ahead? That's the focus of today's Trading Video.

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.