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Dollar, Euro and Pound Await Fed, Draghi and Carney Commentary

Dollar, Euro and Pound Await Fed, Draghi and Carney Commentary

2016-10-25 02:10:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • Risk trends climb to start the week, but conviction lacking for equities, high yield, Yen crosses
  • USD/CAD tumbles then recovers on mistaken interpretation of misfired forward guidance
  • Watch central bank speak from Fed, ECB and BoE officials as sensitivity to policy forecasts intensifies

See the DailyFX Analysts' 4Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

The new trading week has kicked off with the familiar wrestle for control between the financial systems two dominant themes: risk trends and monetary policy. From the risk side, global equities jumped higher to rekindle hope that sidelined sentiment may be looking for a jumpstart this week. Yet there remains a high fundamental hurdle to reviving conviction in already stretched risk assets. The S&P 500 is still mired in three months of congestion, higher-risk benchmarks (emerging markets and high-yield) still struggle for momentum and volume, and FX-based risk trades (Yen crosses and AUD/USD) struggle to realign. There are breaks of necessity ahead on a range of charts which a modest risk swell may spur, but charge for lasting trends is likely beyond this theme's reach.

Monetary policy tides, on the other hand, is proving a more consistent and capable driver of market volatility. While the financial media likely attributes too much responsibility in the Dollar's climb to solidifying rate forecasts for December; there has been definitive speculation surrounding the Fed, ECB, BoE and even the BoC these past few weeks. It was the BoC (Bank of Canada) that generated an unexpected market surge through this past session when the market misinterpreted remarks from Governor Stephen Poloz. Seeing the sharp USD/CAD tumble, the central bank issued a clarification to the market that simply added another leg to the volatility. The sharp reversal has cast the tentative channel breakout from USD/CAD in doubt, but it has also affirmed the market's fixation on policy chatter.

With such a high degree of sensitivity in monetary policy, this upcoming 24 hours will be fundamentally loaded. Three of the world's largest central banks will see particularly important speeches delivered by key officials. In order of escalating influence, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart's speech will be the least likely to move markets as it is not expected to cover monetary policy or economic forecast. However, given the market impact of the last speech before the September FOMC meeting blackout; we shouldn't write this event off. ECB President Mario Draghi's lecture on monetary policy will draw a more tense crowd. Last week, the central bank deferred the expected Taper announcement. Perhaps Draghi and crew were looking for a less formal opportunity to float the idea, semi-officially. And, the most market-moving potent event will be BoE Governor Mark Carney's appearance before the House of Lords speaking on his Brexit assessment. What can move the markets in session ahead? That's the focus of today's Trading Video.

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