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S&P 500's Drop Hits Another Support, Dollar Keeps Climbing

S&P 500's Drop Hits Another Support, Dollar Keeps Climbing

2016-10-13 02:58:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • The risk aversion slip that broke SPX from its wedge wouldn't generate the heat necessary to break its bull trend
  • FOMC minutes contributed little to the Dollar's already impressive rally beyond the media by-line
  • Oil's remarkable climb has started to retrace just as a more significant technical high was in reach

See what live coverage is scheduled to cover key event risk for the FX and capital markets on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

Another jolt has fallen short of reviving the market's engine. Despite the abrupt drop in risk-oriented markets from S&P 500 to Emerging Market ETF to Yen crosses Tuesday, traction for an inevitable deleveraging theme was once again lost through the subsequent trading period. General sentiment is not the only game in town, but it would effectively render the others unnecessary if it were to catch. Nevertheless, many of the high profile setups in the market orient to the elemental theme of risk trends. That can eventually prove an effective catalyst, but it can also act as break to those assets attempting a move through other means. For benchmarks like US equity indexes, we gauge the indecision for how long and broad range opportunities may stretch. Alternatively, it calls into question provocative trend changes like USD/JPY as it surpasses 104.

One currency that has done particularly well despite the crosswinds has been the Dollar. The FOMC minutes this past session contained a number of blurbs that the committed hawk or dove could point to as evidence to support their claims. With the Greenback on the rise, more hawks were combing the report and so the headlines fell on statements that the September decision to wait was a 'close call' and several (emphasis here) believed a hike would come 'relatively soon'. Probability for a December 14th hike rose to 68 percent - the highest level in four months - but why a still-distant hike and skeptical market would garner greater traction now is a serious question. Unless a steady feed of encouraging Fed news comes out; traders should remain cautious on what they expect from sustained moves like GBP/USD and NZD/USD or tentative swells similar to EUR/USD's or USD/JPY's recent technical breaks.

Ahead, the docket is relatively light. Economic surveys, secondary economic indicators and Fed speak doesn't seem to carry the clout necessary to make a strong impression on the market. Perhaps the most concentrated event on tap is the forum that BoE Governor Carney and his deputy governors are set to speak at moreso due to the Brexit focus of late than the significance of what these officials may reveal. Elsewhere, oil has traction at a critical juncture in its bull trend and now the commodity is fading back from 51.50 resistance - leaving USD/CAD in an interesting position. We discuss these developments in today's Trading Video.

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