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Dollar, S&P 500 and Oil Start New Week, Quarter With Tenuous Range

Dollar, S&P 500 and Oil Start New Week, Quarter With Tenuous Range

2016-10-01 00:10:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • Ranges have held to close the week, but the markets are quickly running out of breathing room
  • Despite OPEC supply cap announcement this past week, oil ended the week beneath its critical resistance
  • Top event risk for the coming week includes: US NFPs; IMF eco and financial assessments and the RBA rate decision

See what live coverage is scheduled to cover key event risk for the FX and capital markets on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

We closed out the week, month and quarter with the same uneasy quiet that persisted throughout the period. The S&P 500 and Dollar both continue to oscillate within the bounds established over more than a year and a half. However, the comfort that previously accompanied these traversing swings has long ago evaporated. Now the congestion is a greater source of tension than reassurance. Traders are concerned that speculative progress falters immediately upon gaining traction while slips are barely holding back from collapse. Under these circumstances, it is difficult to continue trading on ranges.

While we are invariably still trading broader ranges across the financial system, the sentiment behind these moves is fading so quickly that the sensitivity to fundamental threats invites considerable danger. More practical and imminent is that reality that the ranges themselves are passing the tipping point of viable setups. Benchmarks like the US equity indexes, EUR/USD and even volatility products are marking swings that fall shorter and shorter of their tradeable boundaries. From other corners of the market such as USD/JPY, the range is so narrow that the risk-reward simply isn't viable.

As skepticism hangs over the market into the coming week, we face a docket that offers systemically-important and volatility-inducing event risk. The most recognizable listing is the Friday US September NFPs. This typically has its sway over US rate speculation, but it could easily spill over into global fundamental health assessments. More prominent on my docket is the IMF's semi-annual update on global economic, financial and fiscal health. While not always the most market-moving updates, these readings provide critical bearings for big-picture fundamental assessment. Beyond this event risk, we have items like the RBA rate decision, UK trade and other post-Brexit updates, and a range of foreign reserve updates. We discuss what expect and how to approach next week in this weekend Trading Video.

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