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Beware the Dollar, Pound and Aussie Volatility on Heavy Data

Beware the Dollar, Pound and Aussie Volatility on Heavy Data

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • Top event risk Wednesday is the FOMC rate decision with sway over the Dollar and global risk trends
  • UK 2Q GDP and Australian CPI are market-moving events in their own right for the Pound and Aussie Dollar
  • Sparks from today's data does not offer free-and-clear trend with high level data due later in the week

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the SSI readings on DailyFX's sentiment page.

Beware the impending tide of high profile event risk. The first 48 hours of this trading week was light on important scheduled event risk, but the second half is overloaded with influential movers. With benchmarks like the S&P 500 carving out a tight range at record highs or the USDollar stalled just after last week's breakout, these are markets that are primed for motivation. The question is whether the event risk will align to speculative learn or conflict with it.

Top event risk over the coming 24 hour period will be Wednesday's FOMC rate decision. There are few entities or events that can tout global impact, but the Fed's monetary policy decisions certainly qualify. For the Dollar's increasingly unique policy lean compared to aggressive doves or the borrowed time on risk trends, this event can quickly cut to the bone. Yet, the impact will not likely be so decisive. There is a very low probability that the US central bank hikes rates at this meeting which will put the onus on market participants to break down the statement that accompanies the decision of no change. However, traders are used to leaning in closely to evaluate these events; so beware volatility.

While the Fed will draw most of the speculative focus, it certainly isn't the only high-profile event risk this week. There is plenty of market-moving potential on the docket that can drive other major currencies - and perhaps even potential to stir underlying risk trends. In the upcoming session, UK 2Q GDP and Australia consumer inflation are important indicator for their respective countries and currencies which can translate into localized volatility. For Pound traders, the platform for which the economy has jumped off the Brexit diving board will be very important to the ultimate impact of the split. For the Aussie Dollar, a 63 percent probability of an RBA cut at the next meeting harkens to the reaction of the last cut which came amid a 50/50 standing. Beyond the next 24 hours, the docket only fills out further. Caution on what exposure we take is especially important now. We discuss this and opportunity in today's Trading Video.

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