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Trading Video: ECB and BoE Threaten More Easing, Risk Rally Cools

Trading Video: ECB and BoE Threaten More Easing, Risk Rally Cools

2016-07-01 02:18:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • The BoE Governor and ECB warned further easing may be ahead, sending the Pound and Euro tumbling
  • In the ongoing global fracas, the Dollar looks increasingly appealing for its stable contrast to the majors
  • US equities have slowed their post-Brexit rally and sentiment is once again facing true conviction

Harness the power of big data to evaluate millions of historical price points to calculate the probabilities of short-term market moves using the GSI Indicator.

The prevailing risk appetite run backing an uneven climb between equities, Yen crosses and commodities has uniformly slowed this past session. In its place, monetary policy was once again crowding out the headlines. Bank of England Governor Carney, after taking stock of the Brexit uncertainty still ahead, said in a speech that the central bank will likely have to ease in the near future. Not to be outdone, the ECB was said to be contemplating loosening its QE standards as it runs short of viable assets for its purchase program.

Monetary policy is once again generating volatility for the FX market, but its impact will not sustain the same level and type of influence that it has in the past. We have seen easing at already extreme levels (which most policy officials currently find themselves) offers increasingly marginal returns economically and financially. That desperation, however, will certainly exacerbate volatility in the FX markets amid building currency wars and ultimately contribute to the reality of financial instability throughout the system. That puts the spotlight on questionable risk asset buoyancy and the Dollar's potential to extend its post-Brexit gains.

However, the trading vehicles for a risk shift or Dollar extension do not exactly offer the same technical acuity as the USDollar Index and S&P 500. While keeping track of the themes themselves is important for establishing timing and conviction, the instrument used to execute the view is important for reasonable levels and fundamental leverage. We look at the deeper currents and the boats that can navigate them in today's Trading Video.

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