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Video: Fed Unchained the Dollar, Watching for Risk Catalysts

Video: Fed Unchained the Dollar, Watching for Risk Catalysts

2016-05-21 00:35:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • The FOMC minutes this past week finally cracked a rigid sense of skepticism over the Fed's intentions
  • Both the Pound and Aussie Dollar have lost fundamental traction, but speculative appetites may compensate
  • Risk trends from the G-7 meeting to USDJPY pressure on for Yen crosses to the S&P 500 will remain top of the mind

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the FXCM SSI readings on DailyFX's sentiment page.

The Dollar may not have thrown in its full commitment to a prevailing trend, but the Fed certainly unshackled its mooring to fundamental neutrality. The minutes this past week finally forced a break in the market's seemingly impenetrable rate skepticism and helped forge a crucial technical break. While momentum was not in ready supply after resistance was overtaken, their is a notable levity behind the Greenback moving forward in that the market will more readily respond to hawkish commentary that genuinely bolsters the case for a June rate hike.

Elsewhere, key movers in the Australian Dollar and British Pound have spent their concentrated fundamental event risk; and momentum will prove more difficult to supply. A Aussie retreat among pairs like AUD/USD, GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD will depend more on speculative whiles rather than fundamental conviction. However, that does not diminish the general technical appeal found in many of the crosses.

Thematically, risk trends will be as pressing as US rate speculation with crucial technical patterns on tap for the S&P 500 and USD/JPY (carry). Scheduled event risk is notably lighter; but the G-7 meeting, Fed speak, Japanese CPI and BoC rate decision are top listings. We prepare for the week ahead in this weekend Trading Video.

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