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Fed, BoJ and RBNZ Decisions Ahead Threaten Heavy FX Volatility

Fed, BoJ and RBNZ Decisions Ahead Threaten Heavy FX Volatility

2016-04-27 03:08:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • Wednesday will start a three-day period of key event risk including both rate decisions and GDP readings
  • The Fed rate decision is the top listing for Wednesday's session with influence over both the Dollar and 'risk'
  • Volatility behind the Pound and Aussie Dollar set the stage for heavy reactions to the RBNZ and BoJ as well

See how retail traders are positioning in the Dollar, Pound, Kiwi and Yen heading into this key event risk using the FXCM SSI readings on DailyFX's sentiment page.

Wednesday will kick off a 72-hour spree of high-level event risk. And, given the skittishness amongst traders along with their underlying skepticism; conditions are ripe for fireworks. This is certainly exciting, and the period of general restraint and congestion holding over the market gives this a sense that a fog may soon be lifted for traders. However, first and foremost, we must appreciate the risk that this dense round of event risk draws. The center piece of Wednesday's session will be the Fed decision. It would be a mistake to write off the possibility of a surprise hike completely, but the real debate will likely center on evidence for speculating on June. The Dollar is an obvious lightening rod for this event, but the risk influence may well be more substantial - and very likely skewed. With the RBNZ and BoJ rate decisions as well as the UK GDP figures on deck; it will be difficult to navigate straightforward trade conditions. We take count of the event risk along with the opportunities and threats it draws in today's Trade Video.

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