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Fed Rate Decision Top Event Risk, But Sentiment Key Market Mover

Fed Rate Decision Top Event Risk, But Sentiment Key Market Mover

2016-03-12 01:24:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

• After the ECB fireworks this past week, the market will be even more focused on the upcoming Fed decision

• Monetary policy seems to be changing as a clear path in exchange rates, but it is also building as a sentiment scale

• In addition to the FOMC decision; the BoJ, BoE, SNB, Russian and South African central banks will weigh rates

See the DailyFX Analysts' favorite 2016 trading opportunities in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

Conviction in fundamental themes has become mixed, but volatility remains high for the FX and broader financial markets. Key event risk that stirs the deeper thematic pools can forge breaks from recent consolidation and revive major technical trends. The event risk with the greatest authority and anticipated influence over the market is Wednesday's FOMC rate decision. As the only major central bank that has ventured into the hawkish policy arena, the Fed leverages a currency on the opposite end of the typical spectrum and has shaped the interpretation of how monetary policy is influencing investor sentiment. However, following the distinct shift in reaction to exceptional changes from the European and Japanese central banks; the markets look more introspective over their bearings. In addition to Fed policy and risk trends; traders should monitor the array of other central bank decisions on tap - BoJ, BoE, SNB, CRB and SARB - as well as commodities for a macroeconomic assessment. We discuss the major trends and the key catalysts ahead for traders in this weekend Strategy Video.

Watch retail traders position into and react to the Fed rate decision using the FXCM SSI readings on DailyFX's Sentiment page.

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