Talking Points:
- Top event risk in the week ahead includes US PCE and NFPs, the BoE rate decision, Chinese PMI
- The effectiveness of monetary policy, the nascent rebound in risk and commodities top themes for next week
- Both the Yen crosses and Dollar's rally to end this past week will be closely watch on the open
See how retail traders are positioning in the majors in your charts using the FXCM SSI snapshot.
The week ended off with a bang. The BoJ unexpectedly announced fresh accommodation to leverage the Yen crosses higher, the Dollar rallied to fresh 12-year highs and risk trends lifted optimism from a S&P 500 rally to Emerging Market swell. In past years, these could be construed as related events - a major central bank supplying stimulus and charging the risk chase with the Dollar reinforced for its yield forecast. Yet, none of that adds up nowadays. The Japanese central bank's policies are looking more desperate than effective, investor sentiment has been permanently marred and the Greenback's path to hikes is far less proficient at providing lift. In the week ahead, all of these tentative moves will be put to serious test. Add to that high-profile schedule event risk like the US labor data, the Fed's preferred inflation statistics, Chinese PMIs and the BoE rate decision with quarterly inflation report; and we a volatile mix of questionable trends and capable catalysts. We talk about the state of the market and the conditions ahead in this weekend Trading Video.
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