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Dollar's CPI Rally Lacking, Stall in Risk Raises Yen Crosses Appeal

Dollar's CPI Rally Lacking, Stall in Risk Raises Yen Crosses Appeal

2015-11-18 00:21:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

• US CPI ticked up according to Tuesday's figures, but the development hardly furthers Fed rate speculation

• Risk trends leveled out with the S&P 500 holding at its 200-day moving average as sentiment still unsteady

FOMC minutes will give another go for Dollar volatility but risk trends offer deeper waters for pairs like JPY

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors in your charts using the FXCM SSI snapshot.

US inflation data this past session was top event risk, and it would offer a modest reinforcement to prevailing Dollar bulls. However, the encouragement was modest. While there has been suggestion the October CPI update was the turning point for price pressures, the actual 0.2 percent annual reading hardly puts us within reach of the 2.0 percent target. Given the Greenback's strength in the past years - and certainly the past week - we need data that is more definitively an upgrade. Perhaps the upcoming FOMC minutes and Fed speeches will provide. In the meantime, I maintain a very near-term view of my NZDUSD short, long term for my USDCHF long and high requirement for new Dollar exposure. In contrast, there may be more immediate potential in 'risk-oriented' positions. With the S&P 500 holding its 200-day moving average as resistance, the week's opening swell in sentiment may falter and provide the drop back into range that motivates other assets with a similar predilection. The Yen crosses may have an option for regardless of the risk direction and intensity. We take a look at the markets and its potential ahead in today's Trading Video.


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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.