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S&P 500 Revives Its Climb Without a True Risk Backing, Dollar Stabilizes

S&P 500 Revives Its Climb Without a True Risk Backing, Dollar Stabilizes

2015-10-16 03:40:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

• A rally from the S&P 500 this past session erased all of the week's pent up doubt

• As strong as the US stock move was, the backdrop for risk and market activity ahead is far from conducive

• After a critical technical breakdown, the Dollar quickly stabilized with underlying inflation firming

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors in your charts using the FXCM SSI snapshot.

US equities seem to have made a strong 'risk-on' promise with a rally to 7-week highs while the Dollar pulled out of its own dive before momentum could truly set in. Which of these benchmarks better reflects the market pace we should expect through the end of the week and beyond? Not only is broader sentiment riddled with doubt over global growth, emerging markets capital flows, China's economy and monetary policy implications; but the economic docket is thin on event risk capable of genuinely staunching dribbling confidence. A strong run in risk will require a fundamental drive (whether bullish or bearish) and even a significantly move to range may struggle. Similar medium-term potential with inert current conditions exists for the Dollar's and Pound's recent swings. A return to trend remains a likely outcome, but it would be risky to force the trades or front run them. We look at trend, countertrends and conviction in today's Trading Video.

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