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Yellen Revives Fed Hike Expectations, Dollar and Equities Steady

Yellen Revives Fed Hike Expectations, Dollar and Equities Steady

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

• Markets fought back from an early session risk plunge Thursday to close the session in range

• Fed Chair Janet Yellen's lecture was top event risk with 2015 hike remarks that contradicted the FOMC presser

• Monetary policy is gearing up to be a key theme next week - both for relative FX position and risk trends

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Had Fed Chair Janet Yellen made her remarks during the active trading session Thursday, we may have closed out a very different day. In her speech, the head central banker seemed to reverse her lean following last week's FOMC hold with rhetoric that seems to signal a rate hike from the group is still on the agenda. Answering a question that was left to linger last week, Yellen remarked that she was among the group that believed a 2015 rate hike was still the most likely outcome moving forward. She further weighed in on the risks of maintaining exceptionally accommodative monetary policy longer than it is warranted. Despite the implications and the market's recent sensitivity on this topic, speculative liquidity was thin enough that the Dollar would renew a serious run to 12-year highs nor would risk assets see critical tumbles. Market participants will keep a weathered eye on whether the sentiment seas remain steady through the week's close. Looking ahead beyond the weekend, the event risk will hit serious levels once again. We assess the market and the setups it is shaping in today's Trading Video.

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