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Recovery Attempt from Stocks and Yen Crosses Falters

Recovery Attempt from Stocks and Yen Crosses Falters

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

• The market made a valiant effort to recovery from its terrible stumble to start the week

• Stocks, Yen crosses and other 'risk' assets rose through Tuesday; but confidence fell apart before the close

• Short-term speculators cannot plug these markets and buy-and-hold investors aren't wooed at these levels

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Speculators made an effort to leverage the tepid confidence bounce from Monday's low through the subsequent trading session. Yet, the bullish camp couldn't rally around the mild recovery, news of PBoC accommodation and speculation of a more comprehensive support effort being mounted by G7/10 forces. Direction and momentum moving forward will likely depend more on market conditions rather than mainstay fundamentals and technicals. Since the beginning of 2013 - when the Fed introduced QE3 - the contribution of short-term 'speculators' steadily replaced that of longer duration buy-and-hold 'investors'. Given the breadth and intensity of the recent deleveraging, speculators are unlikely to carry the conviction or influence to mount a true recovery. For investors, the correction does not pull us back into clearly 'undervalued' levels. So, we need to remain wary of volatility and risk unwinding. We take stock of a market focused on sentiment in today's Trading Video.

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